AFC Wimbledon 0-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Stevenage travel to The Cherry Red Records Stadium to take on AFC Wimbledon. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 December 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Wimbledon stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 League One matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, AFC Wimbledon have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — AFC Wimbledon are significantly better at The Cherry Red Records Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Stevenage have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (AFC Wimbledon) versus 1.30 (Stevenage). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for AFC Wimbledon, 2 for Stevenage and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Stevenage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
AFC Wimbledon in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 37% versus Stevenage 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AFC Wimbledon 38% | Stevenage 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 0.80 xG and Stevenage 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.768 / defence 0.997 | Stevenage attack 1.006 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.157. AFC Wimbledon's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 AFC Wimbledon games / 65 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 25% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 44%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Stevenage 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stevenage at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 40% | Stevenage 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 25% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG AFC Wimbledon 0.80 / Stevenage 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.768 / def 0.997 | Stevenage attack 1.006 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Stevenage xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 26 December 2025 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
AFC Wimbledon 0 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 25% chance of winning, Stevenage a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage?
Record (2 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 0W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 2W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Stevenage (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AFC Wimbledon's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
25%
3.96
31%
3.28
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
1.96
1.16
Stevenage xG
3.96
25%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
8%
12.64
20%
5.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 16.4 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.16 for Stevenage, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, AFC Wimbledon have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 28W 16D 21L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage's form line: 25W 17D 23L from 65 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-D. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Wimbledon on 1.54 PPG, Stevenage on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, AFC Wimbledon have posted 1.81 PPG from 32 outings (17W 7D 8L).
On the road, Stevenage have gone 11W 9D 12L from 32 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Wimbledon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.02 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Stevenage in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 28W 16D 21L in their last 65 games (1.54 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 25W 17D 23L in their last 65 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Stevenage away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.81 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.31 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Stevenage in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AFC Wimbledon's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
AFC Wimbledon
1
Draws
3
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, Stevenage have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Stevenage 1-0 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — AFC Wimbledon 28% BTTS, Stevenage 34%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 34% for AFC Wimbledon and 28% for Stevenage.
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Stevenage in 38%; Stevenage in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 34% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 28% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at AFC Wimbledon's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage drew 0-0 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 0.80 xG and Stevenage 1.16 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stevenage landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.77 / defence 1.00 against Stevenage attack 1.01 / defence 0.80, drawn from 20/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 25% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 44%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 38%, Stevenage 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stevenage's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.54 PPG, Stevenage 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.