AFC Wimbledon 1-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Peterborough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 39 sees Peterborough travel to The Cherry Red Records Stadium to take on AFC Wimbledon. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 March 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Wimbledon stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, AFC Wimbledon have posted 4W 2D 4L at The Cherry Red Records Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Peterborough — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Peterborough's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, AFC Wimbledon have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for AFC Wimbledon, 1 for Peterborough and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–5 with Peterborough winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
AFC Wimbledon in-play tendencies (83 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Peterborough in-play tendencies (83 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 40% versus Peterborough 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 40% | Peterborough 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.43 xG and Peterborough 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.957 / defence 1.139 | Peterborough attack 0.967 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.183. Data: 37 AFC Wimbledon games / 83 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 40% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 34%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Peterborough 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: AFC Wimbledon 40% | Peterborough 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 40% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.43 / Peterborough 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.957 / def 1.139 | Peterborough attack 0.967 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Peterborough xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Peterborough kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Peterborough kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Peterborough?
AFC Wimbledon 1 - 1 Peterborough.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Peterborough part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 40% chance of winning, Peterborough a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Peterborough?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 0W | Draws 0 | Peterborough 1W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Peterborough in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Peterborough (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AFC Wimbledon's attack at 0.96x the league average against Peterborough's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
40%
2.49
26%
3.91
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.73
1.30
Peterborough xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
8%
12.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.30 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AFC Wimbledon come into this having played 83 games, going 35W 20D 28L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Peterborough sit at 1.20 PPG from 83 outings (28W 16D 39L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Wimbledon on 1.51 PPG, Peterborough on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
AFC Wimbledon's home form reads 22W 8D 12L across 42 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Peterborough have taken 1.00 points per game from 42 outings (12W 6D 24L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Wimbledon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.49 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough in 61%.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 83 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Peterborough in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 35W 20D 28L in their last 83 games (1.51 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 28W 16D 39L in their last 83 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Peterborough away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.76 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.00 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Peterborough in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AFC Wimbledon and Peterborough runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
AFC Wimbledon
1
Draws
1
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Peterborough?
From 2 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, Peterborough have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 1-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Peterborough?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 31%, Peterborough 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (AFC Wimbledon) and 62% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 64% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 62% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Peterborough tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AFC Wimbledon and Peterborough share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 39, as AFC Wimbledon and Peterborough drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.43 xG and Peterborough 1.30 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.96 / defence 1.14 against Peterborough attack 0.97 / defence 1.06, drawn from 37/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 40% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 34%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 40%, Peterborough 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (83 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Peterborough's trading profile (83 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.51 PPG, Peterborough 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.