Sunderland 1-2 Swansea – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Sunderland at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sunderland vs Swansea encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Sunderland and Swansea meet at Stadium of Light in Championship (matchday 34). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Current Form

Sunderland's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Sunderland's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 0D 3L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Sunderland are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Swansea (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Swansea's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Sunderland's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Swansea's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Sunderland's last 10 home games and Swansea's last 10 away games) — Sunderland have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Swansea in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Swansea edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Sunderland 0–0 Swansea — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (last 79 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (last 79 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 56% versus Swansea 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 54% | Swansea 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sunderland surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Swansea have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Swansea surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Sunderland recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.90 xG and Swansea 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.139 / defence 0.952 | Swansea attack 1.045 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.260. Swansea's defence rating of 1.204 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sunderland's projected output up. Data: built from Sunderland's last 79 games and Swansea's last 79.

Result probabilities: Sunderland 52% | Draw 22% | Swansea 25%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 1.91 | Draw 4.47 | Swansea 3.97. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.90 / 1.25) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sunderland's last 10 home games and Swansea's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sunderland 60% (last 10 home games) | Swansea 70% (last 10 away games).

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