Sunderland 1-1 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sunderland at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sunderland vs Preston encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sunderland host Preston at Stadium of Light in Championship (matchday 37). Kick-off is Tuesday 11 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Sunderland — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Sunderland have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Preston have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Preston's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sunderland carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Sunderland's games and 60% of Preston's (from Sunderland's last 10 home games and Preston's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Sunderland, 1 for Preston and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.6 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 6 Nov 2024, ended Sunderland 0–0 Preston — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sunderland in-play tendencies (last 82 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Preston in-play tendencies (last 82 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 48% versus Preston 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 48% | Preston 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.35 xG and Preston 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.013 / defence 0.979 | Preston attack 0.882 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.029. Data: built from Sunderland's last 82 games and Preston's last 82.
Result probabilities: Sunderland 47% | Draw 28% | Preston 24%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.12 | Draw 3.52 | Preston 4.09. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Sunderland 70% (last 10 home games) | Preston 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Preston | Competition: Championship, matchday 37 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 47% | Draw 28% | Preston 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Sunderland 1.35 / Preston 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.013 / def 0.979 | Preston attack 0.882 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Preston xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sunderland vs Preston FAQs
What time does Sunderland vs Preston kick off?
Sunderland vs Preston kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 11 March 2025 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Preston?
Sunderland 1 - 1 Preston.
Where is Sunderland vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Preston part of?
Sunderland vs Preston is a Championship fixture (matchday 37) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 47% chance of winning, Preston a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sunderland and Preston will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Sunderland vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sunderland's attack at 1.01x the league average against Preston's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Preston's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sunderland's last 82 games and Preston's last 82 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.52
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.23
0.89
Preston xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
6%
15.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sunderland vs Preston Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.89 for Preston, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sunderland come into this having played 82 games, going 35W 19D 28L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Preston sit at 1.29 PPG from 82 outings (27W 25D 30L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sunderland on 1.51 PPG, Preston on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sunderland's home form reads 21W 8D 12L across their last 41 home games, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Preston have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 41 away games (10W 11D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sunderland are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.12 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 82 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Preston
Current Season
Sunderland (Home) vs Preston (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sunderland
Current Season
Preston
Current Season
❓ Sunderland vs Preston Form FAQs
What form are Sunderland and Preston in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 35W 19D 28L in their last 82 games (1.51 PPG), while Preston have gone 27W 25D 30L in their last 82 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Preston away?
Sunderland's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.73 PPG; Preston away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Preston been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Preston in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 11 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 May 2023, when Sunderland won Preston 0-3 Sunderland.
Sunderland's record when hosting Preston specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sunderland
3
Draws
1
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Sunderland vs Preston H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Preston?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sunderland have won 2, Preston have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Preston last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 March 2025: Sunderland 1-1 Preston.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Preston?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 46%, Preston 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Sunderland) and 49% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Sunderland have failed to score in 27% of games; Preston in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sunderland vs Preston Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sunderland and Preston matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sunderland's recent matches and 46% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sunderland and Preston matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Sunderland's recent games and 49% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Preston matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Sunderland's recent matches and 66% of Preston's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sunderland and Preston share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 37, as Sunderland and Preston drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.35 xG and Preston 0.89 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Preston attack 0.88 / defence 0.99, drawn from 82/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 47% | Draw 28% | Preston 24%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 48%, Preston 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Preston's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.51 PPG, Preston 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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