Southampton 1-2 Hull City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hull City at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Southampton vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Southampton host Hull City at St. Mary's Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Southampton stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Southampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Southampton at St. Mary's Stadium this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Southampton are significantly better at St. Mary's Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, Hull City have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hull City's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Southampton 1.20 PPG, Hull City 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Southampton have won 1, Hull City 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with Hull City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Southampton in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hull City in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Southampton 64% versus Hull City 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Southampton 62% | Hull City 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Southampton 1.36 xG and Hull City 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Southampton attack 0.945 / defence 0.966 | Hull City attack 1.293 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.140. Hull City have an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — the away xG of 1.43 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 26 Southampton games / 71 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Southampton 35% | Draw 26% | Hull City 38%. Fair-value odds: Southampton 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Hull City 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Southampton 50% | Hull City 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Southampton vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: St. Mary's Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Southampton 35% | Draw 26% | Hull City 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Southampton 1.36 / Hull City 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Southampton attack 0.945 / def 0.966 | Hull City attack 1.293 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Hull City (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Southampton xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Hull City xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Southampton vs Hull City kick off?
Southampton vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at St. Mary's Stadium.
What was the final score in Southampton vs Hull City?
Southampton 1 - 2 Hull City.
Where is Southampton vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at St. Mary's Stadium.
What competition is Southampton vs Hull City part of?
Southampton vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Southampton vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Southampton a 35% chance of winning, Hull City a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Southampton vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Southampton and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Southampton vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Southampton and Hull City?
Record (3 meetings): Southampton 1W | Draws 0 | Hull City 2W.
What form are Southampton and Hull City in?
Southampton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Hull City (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Southampton's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Hull City's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Southampton's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
35%
2.83
26%
3.80
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Southampton xG
Total xG
2.78
1.43
Hull City xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
9%
11.76
10%
10.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Southampton vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Southampton and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Southampton and 1.43 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Southampton vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Southampton have picked up 0.70 PPG on a 10W 15D 39L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Southampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hull City's form line: 22W 15D 27L from 64 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hull City are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Southampton.
Venue Form
On home soil, Southampton have posted 0.84 PPG from 31 outings (6W 8D 17L).
On the road, Hull City have gone 10W 7D 14L from 31 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Southampton are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.17 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Southampton have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Southampton
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Southampton and Hull City in coming into this match?
Southampton have gone 10W 15D 39L in their last 64 games (0.70 PPG), while Hull City have gone 22W 15D 27L in their last 64 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Southampton at home or Hull City away?
Hull City's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Southampton at home: 0.84 PPG; Hull City away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Hull City go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Southampton's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Southampton
0
Draws
3
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Southampton and Hull City?
From 4 meetings on record, Southampton have won 1, Hull City have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Southampton and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Southampton 1-2 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Southampton and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Southampton see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Southampton 55%, Hull City 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Southampton) and 42% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Southampton have failed to score in 39% of games; Hull City in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Southampton home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Southampton play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Southampton's recent matches and 48% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Southampton vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Southampton's recent games and 42% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Southampton and Hull City tend to score early?
Southampton have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Hull City in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hull City edge out Southampton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Southampton 1-2 at St. Mary's Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Southampton 1.36 xG and Hull City 1.43 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Southampton attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Hull City attack 1.29 / defence 1.03, drawn from 26/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Southampton 35% | Draw 26% | Hull City 38%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Southampton 62%, Hull City 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Southampton's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Hull City's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hull City arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.