QPR 2-2 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Brom at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as QPR face West Brom.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
QPR and West Brom meet at MATRADE Loftus Road in Championship (matchday 36). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 6 March 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
QPR's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
QPR's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
West Brom have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
West Brom's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for QPR, 2 for West Brom and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2023, ended QPR 0–2 West Brom — a West Brom win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
QPR — key trading statistics (last 81 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
West Brom — key trading statistics (last 81 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 48% versus West Brom 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 48% | West Brom 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.01 xG and West Brom 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.880 / defence 1.073 | West Brom attack 0.979 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.233. Data: built from QPR's last 81 games and West Brom's last 81.
Result probabilities: QPR 29% | Draw 28% | West Brom 43%. Fair-value odds: QPR 3.44 | Draw 3.58 | West Brom 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Brom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: QPR 60% (last 10 home games) | West Brom 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, matchday 36 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 March 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 29% | Draw 28% | West Brom 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG QPR 1.01 / West Brom 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.880 / def 1.073 | West Brom attack 0.979 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: West Brom (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.30
West Brom xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ QPR vs West Brom FAQs
What time does QPR vs West Brom kick off?
QPR vs West Brom kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Wednesday 6 March 2024 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs West Brom?
QPR 2 - 2 West Brom.
Where is QPR vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs West Brom part of?
QPR vs West Brom is a Championship fixture (matchday 36) (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 29% chance of winning, West Brom a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both QPR and West Brom will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will QPR vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
QPR's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against West Brom's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — West Brom's attack (0.98x) against QPR's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from QPR's last 81 games and West Brom's last 81 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
29%
3.44
28%
3.58
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
QPR xG
Total xG
2.31
1.30
West Brom xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
8%
12.57
16%
6.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ QPR vs West Brom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are QPR and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for QPR and 1.30 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 81 outings, QPR have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 23W 19D 39L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
West Brom's form line: 35W 20D 26L from 81 games, 1.54 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, West Brom are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against QPR.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, QPR have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 40 home games (10W 10D 20L).
On the road, West Brom have gone 12W 10D 18L from their last 40 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
QPR are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.36 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 81 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
West Brom
Current Season
QPR (Home) vs West Brom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
QPR
Current Season
West Brom
Current Season
❓ QPR vs West Brom Form FAQs
What form are QPR and West Brom in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 23W 19D 39L in their last 81 games (1.09 PPG), while West Brom have gone 35W 20D 26L in their last 81 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or West Brom away?
West Brom's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.00 PPG; West Brom away: 1.15 PPG.
Have QPR or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, West Brom in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between QPR and West Brom, the earliest from January 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against West Brom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
QPR
3
Draws
5
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ QPR vs West Brom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and West Brom?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, QPR have won 2, West Brom have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did QPR and West Brom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: West Brom 1-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and West Brom?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 52%, West Brom 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (QPR) and 45% (West Brom).
On the defensive side: QPR have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ QPR vs West Brom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in QPR and West Brom matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of QPR's recent matches and 55% of West Brom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are QPR and West Brom matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of QPR's recent games and 45% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and West Brom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of QPR's recent matches and 75% of West Brom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
QPR and West Brom share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR and West Brom finished level at 2-2 at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 36, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.01 xG and West Brom 1.30 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. QPR beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.88 / defence 1.07 against West Brom attack 0.98 / defence 0.84, drawn from 81/81 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 29% | Draw 28% | West Brom 43%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 48%, West Brom 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
West Brom's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. QPR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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