QPR 0-0 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sunderland at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Sunderland encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
QPR and Sunderland meet at MATRADE Loftus Road in Championship (matchday 13). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
QPR's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, QPR have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sunderland (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Sunderland's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sunderland are 1.40 PPG clear of QPR over their recent games (2.20 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Sunderland edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Mar 2024, ended QPR 0–0 Sunderland — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
QPR — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Sunderland — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 52% versus Sunderland 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 45% | Sunderland 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.02 xG and Sunderland 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.827 / defence 1.384 | Sunderland attack 1.236 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 0.968. Sunderland have an above-average attack rating of 1.236, which lifts their away xG to 1.66. QPR's defence rating of 1.384 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sunderland's projected output up. Data: built from QPR's last 58 games and Sunderland's last 58.
Result probabilities: QPR 21% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 50%. Fair-value odds: QPR 4.66 | Draw 3.55 | Sunderland 1.98. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: QPR 70% (last 10 home games) | Sunderland 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, matchday 13 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 21% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG QPR 1.02 / Sunderland 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.827 / def 1.384 | Sunderland attack 1.236 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.377 / away 0.968 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Sunderland xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ QPR vs Sunderland FAQs
What time does QPR vs Sunderland kick off?
QPR vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 2 November 2024 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Sunderland?
QPR 0 - 0 Sunderland.
Where is QPR vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Sunderland part of?
QPR vs Sunderland is a Championship fixture (matchday 13) (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 21% chance of winning, Sunderland a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both QPR and Sunderland will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will QPR vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
QPR's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (1.24x) against QPR's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from QPR's last 58 games and Sunderland's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
21%
4.66
28%
3.55
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
QPR xG
Total xG
2.68
1.66
Sunderland xG
4.66
21%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
4%
24.46
18%
5.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ QPR vs Sunderland Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are QPR and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for QPR and 1.66 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, QPR have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 16W 17D 25L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Sunderland's form line: 25W 9D 24L from 58 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for QPR against 1.45 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, QPR have posted 1.03 PPG from their last 29 home games (7W 9D 13L).
On the road, Sunderland have gone 10W 6D 13L from their last 29 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
QPR are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.29 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
QPR (Home) vs Sunderland (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
QPR
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ QPR vs Sunderland Form FAQs
What form are QPR and Sunderland in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 16W 17D 25L in their last 58 games (1.12 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 25W 9D 24L in their last 58 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Sunderland away?
Sunderland's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.03 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.24 PPG.
Have QPR or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Sunderland in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sunderland won QPR 0-3 Sunderland on 14 Feb 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
QPR
3
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ QPR vs Sunderland H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Sunderland?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, QPR have won 1, Sunderland have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Sunderland last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2025: Sunderland 0-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 62%, Sunderland 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (QPR) and 41% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Sunderland in 31%; Sunderland in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ QPR vs Sunderland Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in QPR and Sunderland matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of QPR's games and 48% of Sunderland's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are QPR and Sunderland matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of QPR's recent games and 41% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Sunderland matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of QPR's recent matches and 66% of Sunderland's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at QPR's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 13, as QPR and Sunderland drew 0-0 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.02 xG and Sunderland 1.66 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. QPR fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sunderland landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.83 / defence 1.38 against Sunderland attack 1.24 / defence 0.90, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 21% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 50%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 45%, Sunderland 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sunderland's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.12 PPG, Sunderland 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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