QPR 1-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates QPR at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium plays host to QPR versus Hull City in Championship, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 19 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
QPR have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium, QPR have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hull City (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Hull City's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in QPR's favour (1.70 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — QPR have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Hull City in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: QPR 1W, Hull City 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 3–0 with QPR winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 13% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 55% versus Hull City 26%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (QPR 52% | Hull City 23%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.17 xG and Hull City 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 1.042 / defence 0.992 | Hull City attack 0.637 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.077 / away 1.067. Data: 31 QPR games / 32 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 48% | Draw 31% | Hull City 21%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Hull City 4.76. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Hull City's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is QPR at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on QPR if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.84 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: QPR 20% | Hull City 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 48% | Draw 31% | Hull City 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 34% | xG QPR 1.17 / Hull City 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 1.042 / def 0.992 | Hull City attack 0.637 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.077 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: QPR (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
QPR xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Hull City xG
34%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Hull City kick off?
QPR vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
What was the final score in QPR vs Hull City?
QPR 1 - 1 Hull City.
Where is QPR vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
What competition is QPR vs Hull City part of?
QPR vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 48% chance of winning, Hull City a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both QPR and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Hull City?
Record (1 meetings): QPR 1W | Draws 0 | Hull City 0W.
What form are QPR and Hull City in?
QPR (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Hull City (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
QPR's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Hull City's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (0.64x) against QPR's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 31/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.9%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
48%
2.09
31%
3.23
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
QPR xG
Total xG
1.84
0.67
Hull City xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
7%
15.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 10.7 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.5 | 12.5 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are QPR and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for QPR and 0.67 for Hull City, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
QPR's recent record stands at 15W 7D 9L from 31 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Hull City, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 17L across 31 games — 0.97 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours QPR by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hull City heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, QPR have managed 8W 4D 3L from 15 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hull City's away record stands at 3W 3D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
QPR are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 0.71 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City in 26%.
Last 31 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Hull City in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 15W 7D 9L in their last 31 games (1.68 PPG), while Hull City have gone 8W 6D 17L in their last 31 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Hull City away?
QPR's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.87 PPG; Hull City away: 0.80 PPG.
Have QPR or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Hull City in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
QPR go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: QPR won 0-3 on 14 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
QPR
1
Draws
3
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, QPR have won 6, Hull City have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Hull City 1-3 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Hull City?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (QPR) and 20% (Hull City) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for QPR and 13% for Hull City.
On the defensive side: QPR keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Hull City in 33%; Hull City in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of QPR's recent matches and 20% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of QPR's recent games and 13% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Hull City tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hull City in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
QPR and Hull City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR and Hull City finished level at 1-1 at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.17 xG and Hull City 0.67 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Hull City attack 0.64 / defence 1.04, drawn from 31/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 48% | Draw 31% | Hull City 21%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 52%, Hull City 23%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Hull City's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, QPR arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.