Plymouth 0-3 West Brom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Plymouth at 41%, yet in-form West Brom provide a compelling counter-argument — this Plymouth vs West Brom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
West Brom travel to Home Park to take on Plymouth in Championship (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 20 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Plymouth stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Plymouth at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Plymouth are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, West Brom have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, West Brom have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour West Brom — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Plymouth have won 0, West Brom 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Plymouth 0–0 West Brom — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Plymouth trading profile (last 78 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
West Brom trading profile (last 78 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 58% versus West Brom 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 60% | West Brom 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.67 xG and West Brom 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.296 / defence 1.369 | West Brom attack 0.899 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.237. Plymouth carry an above-average attack rating of 1.296 — their 1.67 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Plymouth's defence rating of 1.369 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing West Brom's projected output up. Data: built from Plymouth's last 32 games and West Brom's last 78.
Result probabilities: Plymouth 41% | Draw 23% | West Brom 35%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.42 | Draw 4.27 | West Brom 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.67 / 1.52) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form West Brom (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Plymouth's last 10 home games and West Brom's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Plymouth 70% (last 10 home games) | West Brom 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, matchday 29 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 41% | Draw 23% | West Brom 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Plymouth 1.67 / West Brom 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.296 / def 1.369 | West Brom attack 0.899 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.52
West Brom xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plymouth vs West Brom FAQs
What time does Plymouth vs West Brom kick off?
Plymouth vs West Brom kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 20 February 2024 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs West Brom?
Plymouth 0 - 3 West Brom.
Where is Plymouth vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs West Brom part of?
Plymouth vs West Brom is a Championship fixture (matchday 29) (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 41% chance of winning, West Brom a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Plymouth and West Brom will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plymouth vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 1.30x the league average against West Brom's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, West Brom's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Plymouth's last 32 games and West Brom's last 78 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
41%
2.42
23%
4.27
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Plymouth xG
Total xG
3.19
1.52
West Brom xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
9%
11.10
7%
15.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plymouth vs West Brom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Plymouth and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.52 for West Brom, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plymouth's recent record stands at 40W 18D 20L from 78 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five.
West Brom, meanwhile, have gone 33W 19D 26L across 78 games — 1.51 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.77 PPG, West Brom on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Plymouth have managed 27W 5D 6L from their last 38 home games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
West Brom's away record stands at 11W 9D 18L across their last 38 away games, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.33 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
West Brom
Current Season
Plymouth (Home) vs West Brom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plymouth
Current Season
West Brom
Current Season
❓ Plymouth vs West Brom Form FAQs
What form are Plymouth and West Brom in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 40W 18D 20L in their last 78 games (1.77 PPG), while West Brom have gone 33W 19D 26L in their last 78 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or West Brom away?
Plymouth's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.26 PPG; West Brom away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Plymouth or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, West Brom in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Feb 2024, when West Brom won Plymouth 0-3 West Brom.
Plymouth's record when hosting West Brom specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Plymouth
1
Draws
2
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Plymouth vs West Brom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and West Brom?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Plymouth have won 1, West Brom have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Plymouth and West Brom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Plymouth 2-1 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and West Brom?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 55%, West Brom 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Plymouth) and 45% (West Brom).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plymouth vs West Brom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plymouth and West Brom matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Plymouth's games and 55% of West Brom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Plymouth and West Brom matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Plymouth's recent games and 45% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and West Brom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Plymouth's recent matches and 76% of West Brom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant West Brom run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Plymouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat Plymouth 0-3 at Home Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.67 xG and West Brom 1.52 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Plymouth fell 1.7 short of their projected output. West Brom outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.30 / defence 1.37 against West Brom attack 0.90 / defence 0.92, drawn from 32/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 41% | Draw 23% | West Brom 35%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual West Brom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 60%, West Brom 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
West Brom's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.77 PPG, West Brom 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. West Brom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Championship fixtures — matchday 29
All Championship fixtures →
More UK football predictions →