Peterborough 2-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Peterborough host Derby at Weston Homes Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 August 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Peterborough stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Championship matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Peterborough have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have recorded 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Derby — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.20 xG and Derby 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 0.979 / defence 1.150 | Derby attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.062 / away 1.346. Data: 1 Peterborough games / 1 Derby games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Peterborough 30% | Draw 35% | Derby 36%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 3.33 | Draw 2.86 | Derby 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 30% | Draw 35% | Derby 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 55% | xG Peterborough 1.20 / Derby 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 0.979 / def 1.150 | Derby attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.062 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Derby (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Derby xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Derby kick off?
Peterborough vs Derby kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Derby?
Peterborough 2 - 1 Derby.
Where is Peterborough vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Derby part of?
Peterborough vs Derby is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 30% chance of winning, Derby a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Peterborough and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Peterborough and Derby in?
Peterborough (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L. Derby (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Peterborough's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
30%
3.35
35%
2.90
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.51
1.31
Derby xG
3.35
30%
Home win
2.90
35%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
8%
12.46
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.7 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.31 for Derby, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Peterborough have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Peterborough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Derby's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Derby are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Peterborough.
Goals in Recent Form
Peterborough are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Derby in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Early Season
Derby
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Derby in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Derby have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Peterborough's record when hosting Derby specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Peterborough
0
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 3, Derby have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2024, when Derby 2-3 Peterborough.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Peterborough's recent matches and 100% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Peterborough's recent games and 0% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Derby tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Derby in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Peterborough defy the odds to beat Derby 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Derby 2-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.20 xG and Derby 1.31 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Derby attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 30% | Draw 35% | Derby 36%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Peterborough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 100%, Derby 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Peterborough winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Peterborough scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Derby shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.