Oxford United 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oxford United vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 38 as Oxford United welcome Charlton to Kassam Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Oxford United have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Kassam Stadium, Oxford United have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Championship this season, Charlton have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Oxford United at 1.40 PPG versus Charlton's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Oxford United hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Charlton, with 1 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Charlton winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Oxford United and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Oxford United in-play tendencies (83 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Charlton in-play tendencies (83 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oxford United 53% versus Charlton 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oxford United 43% | Charlton 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oxford United 0.98 xG and Charlton 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oxford United attack 0.723 / defence 1.032 | Charlton attack 0.817 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.192. Oxford United's attack strength of 0.723 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 83 Oxford United games / 37 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oxford United 33% | Draw 33% | Charlton 34%. Fair-value odds: Oxford United 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Charlton 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Oxford United 40% | Charlton 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oxford United vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Kassam Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oxford United 33% | Draw 33% | Charlton 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Oxford United 0.98 / Charlton 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Oxford United attack 0.723 / def 1.032 | Charlton attack 0.817 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Charlton (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Oxford United xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Charlton xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oxford United vs Charlton kick off?
Oxford United vs Charlton kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Kassam Stadium.
What was the final score in Oxford United vs Charlton?
Oxford United 1 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Oxford United vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Kassam Stadium.
What competition is Oxford United vs Charlton part of?
Oxford United vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Oxford United vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Oxford United a 33% chance of winning, Charlton a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oxford United vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Oxford United and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Oxford United vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oxford United and Charlton?
Record (7 meetings): Oxford United 5W | Draws 1 | Charlton 1W.
What form are Oxford United and Charlton in?
Oxford United (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Oxford United's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Oxford United's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 83/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
33%
3.06
33%
3.00
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Oxford United xG
Total xG
1.98
1.00
Charlton xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
12%
8.34
13%
7.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oxford United vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Oxford United and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Oxford United and 1.00 for Charlton, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Oxford United vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Oxford United come into this having played 83 games, going 22W 25D 36L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 1.57 PPG from 83 outings (36W 22D 25L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Charlton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Oxford United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Oxford United's home form reads 16W 11D 14L across 41 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 1.24 points per game from 41 outings (13W 12D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Oxford United are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.20 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 83 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oxford United
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oxford United and Charlton in coming into this match?
Oxford United have gone 22W 25D 36L in their last 83 games (1.10 PPG), while Charlton have gone 36W 22D 25L in their last 83 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oxford United at home or Charlton away?
Oxford United's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oxford United at home: 1.44 PPG; Charlton away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Oxford United or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oxford United have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Charlton in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oxford United and Charlton runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2022, when Oxford United won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oxford United's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Oxford United
2
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oxford United and Charlton?
From 8 meetings on record, Oxford United have won 5, Charlton have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oxford United and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Oxford United 1-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Oxford United and Charlton?
Oxford United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oxford United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oxford United 49%, Charlton 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Oxford United) and 46% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Oxford United keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Charlton in 34%; Oxford United have failed to score in 27% of games; Charlton in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oxford United home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oxford United play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Oxford United's recent matches and 42% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oxford United vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Oxford United's recent games and 46% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oxford United and Charlton tend to score early?
Oxford United have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Charlton in 51% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oxford United and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oxford United and Charlton finished level at 1-1 at Kassam Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oxford United 0.98 xG and Charlton 1.00 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oxford United attack 0.72 / defence 1.03 against Charlton attack 0.82 / defence 1.05, drawn from 83/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oxford United 33% | Draw 33% | Charlton 34%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oxford United 43%, Charlton 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oxford United's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.