Nottingham Forest 1-2 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Nottingham Forest take on Bournemouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The City Ground plays host to Nottingham Forest versus Bournemouth in Championship, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 14 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nottingham Forest's overall Championship record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Nottingham Forest have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bournemouth have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Championship outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bournemouth have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Bournemouth are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Nottingham Forest register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Bournemouth in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.23 xG and Bournemouth 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.977 / defence 1.150 | Bournemouth attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.095 / away 1.320. Data: 1 Nottingham Forest games / 1 Bournemouth games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 31% | Draw 35% | Bournemouth 34%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Bournemouth 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 31% | Draw 35% | Bournemouth 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 55% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.23 / Bournemouth 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.977 / def 1.150 | Bournemouth attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.095 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Bournemouth xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth?
Nottingham Forest 1 - 2 Bournemouth.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 31% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L. Bournemouth (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nottingham Forest's attack rating (0.98) and Bournemouth's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bournemouth's attack (0.85x) against Nottingham Forest's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.19
35%
2.90
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.52
1.29
Bournemouth xG
3.19
31%
Home win
2.90
35%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
9%
11.60
10%
10.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.29 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 1 outings, Nottingham Forest have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bournemouth's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Bournemouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bournemouth are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nottingham Forest.
Attack vs Defence
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nottingham Forest have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Bournemouth in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Early Season
Bournemouth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bournemouth won 5-0 on 25 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nottingham Forest have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bournemouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Nottingham Forest
4
Draws
6
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth?
From 10 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 0, Bournemouth have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Nottingham Forest 1-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Bournemouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Nottingham Forest's games and 100% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Nottingham Forest's matches and 100% of Bournemouth's.
Do Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth tend to score early?
Nottingham Forest have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bournemouth in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bournemouth edge out Nottingham Forest 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest 1-2 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 2, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.23 xG and Bournemouth 1.29 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Bournemouth attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 31% | Draw 35% | Bournemouth 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Bournemouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 100%, Bournemouth 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Bournemouth conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.