Norwich 1-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Norwich at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Norwich face QPR.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Norwich host QPR at Carrow Road in Championship (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 29 December 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Norwich — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Norwich's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Norwich are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, QPR have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Norwich 1.10 PPG, QPR 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Norwich, 1 for QPR and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2024, ended Norwich 0–3 QPR — a QPR win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Norwich in-play tendencies (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
QPR in-play tendencies (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norwich 61% versus QPR 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norwich 59% | QPR 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Norwich surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while QPR have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norwich 1.99 xG and QPR 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norwich attack 1.496 / defence 1.276 | QPR attack 0.788 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.035. Norwich carry an above-average attack rating of 1.496 — their 1.99 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. QPR's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Norwich's defence rating of 1.276 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing QPR's projected output up. Data: built from Norwich's last 69 games and QPR's last 69.
Result probabilities: Norwich 58% | Draw 23% | QPR 18%. Fair-value odds: Norwich 1.71 | Draw 4.27 | QPR 5.47. The model has a clear lean to Norwich (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Norwich are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Norwich's last 10 home games and QPR's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Norwich 80% (last 10 home games) | QPR 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norwich vs QPR | Competition: Championship, matchday 24 | Venue: Carrow Road • Kick-off: Sunday 29 December 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norwich 58% | Draw 23% | QPR 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Norwich 1.99 / QPR 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Norwich attack 1.496 / def 1.276 | QPR attack 0.788 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Norwich (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Norwich xG
Expected Goals
1.04
QPR xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Norwich vs QPR FAQs
What time does Norwich vs QPR kick off?
Norwich vs QPR kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 29 December 2024 at Carrow Road.
What was the final score in Norwich vs QPR?
Norwich 1 - 1 QPR.
Where is Norwich vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Carrow Road.
What competition is Norwich vs QPR part of?
Norwich vs QPR is a Championship fixture (matchday 24) (England).
Who is favourite to win Norwich vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Norwich a 58% chance of winning, QPR a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Norwich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Norwich and QPR will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Norwich vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Norwich's attack rating (1.50) and QPR's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Norwich's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Norwich's last 69 games and QPR's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norwich Win
58%
1.71
23%
4.27
18%
5.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Norwich xG
Total xG
3.03
1.04
QPR xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
5.47
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
14%
7.29
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
3%
39.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Norwich vs QPR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Norwich vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Norwich and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Norwich and 1.04 for QPR, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Norwich vs QPR?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 69 outings, Norwich have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 27W 18D 24L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
QPR's form line: 20W 21D 28L from 69 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Norwich on 1.43 PPG, QPR on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Norwich have posted 1.94 PPG from their last 34 home games (19W 9D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Norwich are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, QPR have gone 10W 10D 14L from their last 34 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Norwich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Norwich are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.01 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Norwich have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norwich
Blended
QPR
Blended
Norwich (Home) vs QPR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Norwich
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Norwich vs QPR Form FAQs
What form are Norwich and QPR in coming into this match?
Norwich have gone 27W 18D 24L in their last 69 games (1.43 PPG), while QPR have gone 20W 21D 28L in their last 69 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norwich at home or QPR away?
Norwich's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norwich at home: 1.94 PPG; QPR away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 1 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Norwich have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Dec 2024, when QPR won QPR 3-0 Norwich.
Norwich's record when hosting QPR specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Norwich
4
Draws
1
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Norwich vs QPR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and QPR?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Norwich have won 3, QPR have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Norwich and QPR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 January 2026: QPR 1-2 Norwich.
Who has won more matches between Norwich and QPR?
Norwich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Norwich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
QPR see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norwich 62%, QPR 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Norwich) and 35% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Norwich keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; QPR in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norwich home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Norwich vs QPR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Norwich and QPR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Norwich's recent matches and 38% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Norwich and QPR matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Norwich's recent games and 35% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norwich and QPR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Norwich's recent matches and 56% of QPR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Norwich and QPR share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norwich and QPR finished level at 1-1 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 1.99 xG and QPR 1.04 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Norwich fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 1.50 / defence 1.28 against QPR attack 0.79 / defence 0.93, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norwich 58% | Draw 23% | QPR 18%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 59%, QPR 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norwich's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
QPR's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Norwich 1.43 PPG, QPR 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Norwich (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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