Norwich 3-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Norwich vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 32 as Norwich welcome Hull City to Carrow Road. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 14 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Norwich have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Norwich at Carrow Road this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hull City stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Championship matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Hull City have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Hull City's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Norwich's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Norwich, 1 for Hull City and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Hull City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Norwich in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Hull City in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norwich 44% versus Hull City 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norwich 56% | Hull City 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norwich 0.81 xG and Hull City 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norwich attack 0.742 / defence 1.270 | Hull City attack 1.006 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.121. Norwich's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Norwich games / 77 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norwich 21% | Draw 27% | Hull City 52%. Fair-value odds: Norwich 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | Hull City 1.92. Hull City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Norwich 50% | Hull City 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norwich vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Carrow Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norwich 21% | Draw 27% | Hull City 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Norwich 0.81 / Hull City 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Norwich attack 0.742 / def 1.270 | Hull City attack 1.006 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Hull City (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Norwich xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Hull City xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norwich vs Hull City kick off?
Norwich vs Hull City kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 14 February 2023 at Carrow Road.
What was the final score in Norwich vs Hull City?
Norwich 3 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Norwich vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Carrow Road.
What competition is Norwich vs Hull City part of?
Norwich vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Norwich vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Norwich a 21% chance of winning, Hull City a 52% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Norwich and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Norwich vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Hull City?
Record (1 meetings): Norwich 0W | Draws 0 | Hull City 1W.
What form are Norwich and Hull City in?
Norwich (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Hull City (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Norwich's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Hull City's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Norwich's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/77 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
21%
4.75
27%
3.65
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Norwich xG
Total xG
2.24
1.43
Hull City xG
4.75
21%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
5%
19.91
23%
4.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 15.2 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norwich vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Norwich and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Norwich and 1.43 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Norwich vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Norwich's recent record stands at 17W 13D 38L from 68 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Hull City, meanwhile, have gone 24W 15D 29L across 68 games — 1.28 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Norwich on 0.94 PPG, Hull City on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Norwich have managed 8W 7D 18L from 33 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hull City's away record stands at 11W 9D 13L across 33 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Norwich are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.07 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norwich
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norwich and Hull City in coming into this match?
Norwich have gone 17W 13D 38L in their last 68 games (0.94 PPG), while Hull City have gone 24W 15D 29L in their last 68 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norwich at home or Hull City away?
Hull City's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norwich at home: 0.94 PPG; Hull City away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Norwich and Hull City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hull City have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2024, when Norwich won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Norwich's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Norwich
1
Draws
3
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Hull City?
From 8 meetings on record, Norwich have won 4, Hull City have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Norwich and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Hull City 2-1 Norwich.
Who has won more matches between Norwich and Hull City?
Norwich have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Norwich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norwich 48%, Hull City 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Norwich) and 36% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Hull City in 39%; Norwich have failed to score in 42% of games; Hull City in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norwich home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norwich play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Norwich's recent matches and 36% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Norwich vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Norwich's recent games and 36% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norwich and Hull City tend to score early?
Norwich have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hull City in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Norwich cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norwich beat Hull City 3-1 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 0.81 xG and Hull City 1.43 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Norwich beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 0.74 / defence 1.27 against Hull City attack 1.01 / defence 0.88, drawn from 30/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norwich 21% | Draw 27% | Hull City 52%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Norwich win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 56%, Hull City 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norwich's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Hull City's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Norwich 0.94 PPG, Hull City 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Norwich win broke the near-deadlock. Norwich (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm. Hull City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.