Middlesbrough 1-0 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Middlesbrough vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Middlesbrough host Bournemouth at Riverside Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 December 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Middlesbrough — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Middlesbrough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Middlesbrough's home record at Riverside Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Championship games this season, Bournemouth have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Bournemouth have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Middlesbrough at 1.50 PPG versus Bournemouth's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Middlesbrough in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Middlesbrough 46% versus Bournemouth 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Middlesbrough 27% | Bournemouth 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Middlesbrough 0.82 xG and Bournemouth 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Middlesbrough attack 0.910 / defence 1.161 | Bournemouth attack 0.970 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 0.998 / away 1.093. Data: 22 Middlesbrough games / 22 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Middlesbrough 23% | Draw 33% | Bournemouth 44%. Fair-value odds: Middlesbrough 4.35 | Draw 3.03 | Bournemouth 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bournemouth are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Middlesbrough 50% | Bournemouth 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Middlesbrough vs Bournemouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Riverside Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Middlesbrough 23% | Draw 33% | Bournemouth 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Middlesbrough 0.82 / Bournemouth 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Middlesbrough attack 0.910 / def 1.161 | Bournemouth attack 0.970 / def 0.908 | league avg home 0.998 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Middlesbrough xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Bournemouth xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Middlesbrough vs Bournemouth kick off?
Middlesbrough vs Bournemouth kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Riverside Stadium.
What was the final score in Middlesbrough vs Bournemouth?
Middlesbrough 1 - 0 Bournemouth.
Where is Middlesbrough vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Riverside Stadium.
What competition is Middlesbrough vs Bournemouth part of?
Middlesbrough vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Middlesbrough vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Middlesbrough a 23% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Middlesbrough and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Middlesbrough vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Bournemouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Middlesbrough and Bournemouth in?
Middlesbrough (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Bournemouth (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Middlesbrough's attack rating (0.91) and Bournemouth's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Middlesbrough's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
23%
4.37
33%
2.99
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Middlesbrough xG
Total xG
2.06
1.23
Bournemouth xG
4.37
23%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
7%
14.97
19%
5.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 15.8 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Middlesbrough vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Middlesbrough and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 1.23 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Middlesbrough vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Middlesbrough come into this having played 22 games, going 8W 6D 8L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Middlesbrough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bournemouth sit at 1.95 PPG from 22 outings (12W 7D 3L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bournemouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Middlesbrough — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Middlesbrough's home form reads 5W 2D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Bournemouth have taken 2.00 points per game from 11 outings (6W 4D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Middlesbrough are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.68 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Middlesbrough have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Bournemouth in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Middlesbrough
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Middlesbrough and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Middlesbrough have gone 8W 6D 8L in their last 22 games (1.36 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 12W 7D 3L in their last 22 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Middlesbrough at home or Bournemouth away?
Bournemouth's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Middlesbrough at home: 1.55 PPG; Bournemouth away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Middlesbrough or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Middlesbrough have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Middlesbrough and Bournemouth runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Middlesbrough
1
Draws
0
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Bournemouth?
From 2 meetings on record, Middlesbrough have won 1, Bournemouth have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Middlesbrough and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2022, when Bournemouth 0-0 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between Middlesbrough and Bournemouth?
Middlesbrough have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bournemouth see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Middlesbrough 54%, Bournemouth 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Middlesbrough and 18% for Bournemouth.
On the defensive side: Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Bournemouth in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Middlesbrough home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Middlesbrough play Bournemouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Middlesbrough's recent matches and 36% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Middlesbrough vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Middlesbrough's recent games and 18% of Bournemouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Middlesbrough and Bournemouth tend to score early?
Middlesbrough have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Bournemouth in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Middlesbrough defy the odds to beat Bournemouth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Middlesbrough beat Bournemouth 1-0 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 0.82 xG and Bournemouth 1.23 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bournemouth landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 0.91 / defence 1.16 against Bournemouth attack 0.97 / defence 0.91, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 23% | Draw 33% | Bournemouth 44%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Middlesbrough win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 27%, Bournemouth 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Middlesbrough's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bournemouth's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.36. Form was overturned, with Middlesbrough winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.