Hull City 2-0 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Swansea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Swansea make the trip to The MKM Stadium to face Hull City in Championship, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Hull City (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The MKM Stadium, Hull City have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Swansea's overall Championship record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Hull City's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Swansea's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hull City lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Swansea goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 28% versus Swansea 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hull City 20% | Swansea 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.08 xG and Swansea 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.883 / defence 1.178 | Swansea attack 0.749 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.045 / away 1.163. Data: 27 Hull City games / 25 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 36% | Draw 30% | Swansea 34%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Swansea 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Hull City 50% | Swansea 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 36% | Draw 30% | Swansea 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Hull City 1.08 / Swansea 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.883 / def 1.178 | Swansea attack 0.749 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.045 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Hull City (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Swansea xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Swansea kick off?
Hull City vs Swansea kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 January 2022 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Swansea?
Hull City 2 - 0 Swansea.
Where is Hull City vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Swansea part of?
Hull City vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 36% chance of winning, Swansea a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Hull City and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Swansea?
Record (1 meetings): Hull City 0W | Draws 1 | Swansea 0W.
What form are Hull City and Swansea in?
Hull City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Swansea (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hull City's attack at 0.88x the league average against Swansea's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Swansea's attack (0.75x) against Hull City's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 27/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
36%
2.75
30%
3.34
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.10
1.03
Swansea xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
12%
8.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hull City and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Hull City and 1.03 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hull City come into this having played 25 games, going 7W 5D 13L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Swansea sit at 1.28 PPG from 25 outings (8W 8D 9L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Hull City against 1.28 for Swansea. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hull City's home form reads 4W 3D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Swansea have taken 1.08 points per game from 12 outings (3W 4D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Hull City are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.12 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City have seen both teams score in 28% of their recent games.
Defensively: Swansea in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Swansea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Swansea in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 7W 5D 13L in their last 25 games (1.04 PPG), while Swansea have gone 8W 8D 9L in their last 25 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Swansea away?
Hull City's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.25 PPG; Swansea away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Hull City or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Swansea in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Swansea won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Swansea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hull City
4
Draws
3
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Swansea?
From 10 meetings on record, Hull City have won 3, Swansea have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Hull City 2-1 Swansea.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 42%, Swansea 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Hull City) and 50% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Hull City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Swansea in 33%; Hull City have failed to score in 33% of games; Swansea in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Hull City's recent matches and 50% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Hull City's recent games and 50% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Swansea tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Swansea in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Swansea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Swansea 2-0 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.08 xG and Swansea 1.03 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Swansea landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.88 / defence 1.18 against Swansea attack 0.75 / defence 1.17, drawn from 27/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 36% | Draw 30% | Swansea 34%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 20%, Swansea 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Swansea's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.04 PPG, Swansea 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.