Hull City 0-0 Millwall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Millwall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hull City and Millwall meet at The MKM Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 August 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hull City's overall Championship record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hull City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hull City have posted 2W 6D 2L at The MKM Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Millwall (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Millwall have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Championship this season, Millwall have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Hull City 2W, Millwall 0W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 1–0 with Hull City winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Millwall half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 65% versus Millwall 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 56% | Millwall 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.70 xG and Millwall 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.980 / defence 1.024 | Millwall attack 1.124 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.206. Data: 48 Hull City games / 48 Millwall games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hull City 45% | Draw 24% | Millwall 31%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Millwall 3.23. Hull City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 60% | Millwall 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (48 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Millwall | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 45% | Draw 24% | Millwall 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Hull City 1.70 / Millwall 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.980 / def 1.024 | Millwall attack 1.124 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.557 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Hull City (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Millwall xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Millwall kick off?
Hull City vs Millwall kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Millwall?
Hull City 0 - 0 Millwall.
Where is Hull City vs Millwall being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Millwall part of?
Hull City vs Millwall is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Millwall?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 45% chance of winning, Millwall a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Millwall?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Hull City and Millwall will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Millwall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Millwall?
Record (4 meetings): Hull City 2W | Draws 2 | Millwall 0W.
What form are Hull City and Millwall in?
Hull City (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Millwall (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hull City's attack at 0.98x the league average against Millwall's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Millwall's attack (1.12x) against Hull City's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
The sample (48/48 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
45%
2.22
24%
4.24
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Hull City xG
Total xG
3.09
1.39
Millwall xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
11%
8.89
6%
17.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Millwall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Hull City and Millwall expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Hull City and 1.39 for Millwall, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Millwall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Hull City have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 19W 15D 14L record — W-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Millwall's form line: 16W 11D 21L from 48 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Millwall, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Hull City against 1.23 for Millwall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hull City have posted 1.42 PPG from 24 outings (8W 10D 6L).
On the road, Millwall have gone 7W 6D 11L from 24 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hull City are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Millwall are on 1.04 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Early Season
Millwall
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Millwall in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 19W 15D 14L in their last 48 games (1.50 PPG), while Millwall have gone 16W 11D 21L in their last 48 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Millwall away?
Hull City's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.42 PPG; Millwall away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Hull City or Millwall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Millwall in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 11 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Millwall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hull City
4
Draws
1
Millwall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Millwall?
From 10 meetings on record, Hull City have won 5, Millwall have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Millwall last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Millwall 0-2 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Millwall?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Millwall see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 62%, Millwall 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Hull City) and 38% (Millwall).
On the defensive side: Millwall in 33%; Millwall in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Millwall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Millwall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Hull City's recent matches and 46% of Millwall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Millwall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Hull City's recent games and 38% of Millwall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Millwall tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Millwall in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hull City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City and Millwall finished level at 0-0 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.70 xG and Millwall 1.39 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hull City fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Millwall landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.98 / defence 1.02 against Millwall attack 1.12 / defence 1.12, drawn from 48/48 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 45% | Draw 24% | Millwall 31%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 56%, Millwall 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Millwall's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.50 PPG, Millwall 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Millwall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.