Hull City 0-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hull City face Derby.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Derby travel to The MKM Stadium to take on Hull City in Championship (matchday 45). The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hull City stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Hull City's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Derby — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Derby's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hull City 1.50 PPG, Derby 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Hull City's games and 60% of Derby's (from Hull City's last 10 home games and Derby's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Hull City, 2 for Derby and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended Hull City 1–1 Derby — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hull City trading profile (last 90 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Derby trading profile (last 90 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 57% versus Derby 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 46% | Derby 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.39 xG and Derby 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.882 / defence 1.146 | Derby attack 1.022 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.023. Derby's defence rating of 1.203 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hull City's projected output up. Data: built from Hull City's last 90 games and Derby's last 44.
Result probabilities: Hull City 41% | Draw 26% | Derby 32%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.41 | Draw 3.80 | Derby 3.10. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hull City 70% (last 10 home games) | Derby 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Derby | Competition: Championship, matchday 45 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 41% | Draw 26% | Derby 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Hull City 1.39 / Derby 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.882 / def 1.146 | Derby attack 1.022 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Hull City (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Derby xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hull City vs Derby FAQs
What time does Hull City vs Derby kick off?
Hull City vs Derby kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 26 April 2025 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Derby?
Hull City 0 - 1 Derby.
Where is Hull City vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Derby part of?
Hull City vs Derby is a Championship fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 41% chance of winning, Derby a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hull City and Derby will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hull City vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hull City's attack at 0.88x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hull City's last 90 games and Derby's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
41%
2.41
26%
3.80
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.59
1.20
Derby xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
13%
8.00
8%
12.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hull City vs Derby Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Hull City and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Hull City and 1.20 for Derby, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hull City come into this having played 90 games, going 31W 25D 34L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Derby sit at 1.53 PPG from 90 outings (40W 18D 32L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.31 PPG, Derby on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hull City's home form reads 13W 17D 15L across their last 45 home games, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Derby have taken 1.29 points per game from their last 45 away games (16W 10D 19L).
The Goals Picture
Hull City are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.39 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 90 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
Hull City (Home) vs Derby (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hull City
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Hull City vs Derby Form FAQs
What form are Hull City and Derby in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 31W 25D 34L in their last 90 games (1.31 PPG), while Derby have gone 40W 18D 32L in their last 90 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.24 PPG; Derby away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Hull City or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Derby in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 24 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hull City's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hull City
1
Draws
4
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Hull City vs Derby H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Derby?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hull City have won 1, Derby have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hull City and Derby last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2026: Hull City 4-2 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 58% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 62%, Derby 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Hull City) and 51% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Derby in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hull City vs Derby Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hull City and Derby matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Hull City's games and 51% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hull City and Derby matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Hull City's recent games and 51% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Derby matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Hull City's recent matches and 64% of Derby's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derby defy the odds to beat Hull City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Hull City 0-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.39 xG and Derby 1.20 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hull City fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Derby attack 1.02 / defence 1.20, drawn from 90/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 41% | Draw 26% | Derby 32%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Derby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 46%, Derby 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derby's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.31 PPG, Derby 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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