Derby 2-1 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Brom at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs West Brom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 23 as Derby welcome West Brom to Pride Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 26 December 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pride Park Stadium, Derby have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
West Brom — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. West Brom's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Derby's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Derby, 0 for West Brom and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Derby winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
West Brom in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 50% versus West Brom 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 52% | West Brom 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.22 xG and West Brom 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.988 / defence 1.092 | West Brom attack 1.096 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.033. Data: 22 Derby games / 68 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 35% | Draw 30% | West Brom 36%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | West Brom 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is West Brom at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on West Brom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Derby 50% | West Brom 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Dec 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 35% | Draw 30% | West Brom 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Derby 1.22 / West Brom 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.988 / def 1.092 | West Brom attack 1.096 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: West Brom (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.24
West Brom xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs West Brom kick off?
Derby vs West Brom kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 26 December 2024 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs West Brom?
Derby 2 - 1 West Brom.
Where is Derby vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs West Brom part of?
Derby vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 35% chance of winning, West Brom a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Derby and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and West Brom?
Record (2 meetings): Derby 1W | Draws 1 | West Brom 0W.
What form are Derby and West Brom in?
Derby (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. West Brom (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Derby's attack at 0.99x the league average against West Brom's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, West Brom's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
35%
2.90
30%
3.34
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Derby xG
Total xG
2.45
1.24
West Brom xG
2.90
35%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
10%
9.97
11%
9.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.7 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Derby and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Derby and 1.24 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby come into this having played 68 games, going 34W 14D 20L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, West Brom sit at 1.59 PPG from 68 outings (28W 24D 16L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.71 PPG, West Brom on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Derby's home form reads 20W 6D 7L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, West Brom have taken 1.27 points per game from 33 outings (10W 12D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.37 scored and 0.91 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; West Brom in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
West Brom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and West Brom in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 34W 14D 20L in their last 68 games (1.71 PPG), while West Brom have gone 28W 24D 16L in their last 68 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or West Brom away?
Derby's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 2.00 PPG; West Brom away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Derby or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, West Brom in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 9 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Derby's record when hosting West Brom specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Derby
2
Draws
1
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and West Brom?
From 7 meetings on record, Derby have won 4, West Brom have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Derby and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 9 September 2026, when Derby 0-1 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between Derby and West Brom?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 52%, West Brom 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Derby) and 58% (West Brom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play West Brom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Derby's games and 61% of West Brom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Derby's matches and 58% of West Brom's.
Do Derby and West Brom tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, West Brom in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derby defy the odds to beat West Brom 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat West Brom 2-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.22 xG and West Brom 1.24 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.99 / defence 1.09 against West Brom attack 1.10 / defence 0.86, drawn from 22/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 35% | Draw 30% | West Brom 36%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Derby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 52%, West Brom 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
West Brom's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.71 PPG, West Brom 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.