Derby 1-2 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Swansea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Swansea at Pride Park Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 27 November 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Pride Park Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, Swansea have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Swansea have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Derby 1.10 PPG, Swansea 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Derby's 30% rate and Swansea's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Derby have won 0, Swansea 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Swansea winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Swansea in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 50% versus Swansea 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 50% | Swansea 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.03 xG and Swansea 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.929 / defence 1.005 | Swansea attack 0.777 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.040. Data: 16 Derby games / 62 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 38% | Draw 35% | Swansea 27%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Swansea 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Derby 30% | Swansea 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Nov 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 38% | Draw 35% | Swansea 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Derby 1.03 / Swansea 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.929 / def 1.005 | Swansea attack 0.777 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Derby (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Swansea xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Swansea kick off?
Derby vs Swansea kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 27 November 2024 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Swansea?
Derby 1 - 2 Swansea.
Where is Derby vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Swansea part of?
Derby vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 38% chance of winning, Swansea a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Derby and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Swansea?
Record (2 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 1 | Swansea 1W.
What form are Derby and Swansea in?
Derby (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Swansea (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Derby's attack rating (0.93) and Swansea's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
38%
2.60
35%
2.86
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Derby xG
Total xG
1.84
0.81
Swansea xG
2.60
38%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.3 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Derby and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Derby and 0.81 for Swansea, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby come into this having played 62 games, going 33W 13D 16L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-D. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Swansea sit at 1.23 PPG from 62 outings (20W 16D 26L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Swansea — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Derby's home form reads 19W 6D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Swansea have taken 1.17 points per game from 30 outings (9W 8D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.18 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Swansea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Swansea in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 33W 13D 16L in their last 62 games (1.81 PPG), while Swansea have gone 20W 16D 26L in their last 62 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Swansea away?
Derby's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 2.10 PPG; Swansea away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Derby or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Swansea in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2026, when Swansea won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derby's record when hosting Swansea specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Derby
1
Draws
4
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Swansea?
From 7 meetings on record, Derby have won 2, Swansea have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Derby 0-3 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Swansea?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 50%, Swansea 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Derby) and 50% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Swansea in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Derby's recent matches and 53% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Derby's recent games and 50% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Swansea tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Swansea in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat Derby 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Derby 1-2 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.03 xG and Swansea 0.81 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Swansea outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Swansea attack 0.78 / defence 0.83, drawn from 16/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 38% | Draw 35% | Swansea 27%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 50%, Swansea 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Swansea's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Swansea winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.