Derby 3-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Hull City travel to Pride Park Stadium to take on Derby. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 8 February 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Pride Park Stadium, Derby have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park Stadium.
Across all Championship games this season, Hull City have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Hull City have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Derby 1.40 PPG, Hull City 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Derby have won 1, Hull City 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Derby winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Hull City in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 52% versus Hull City 28%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Derby 38% | Hull City 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.12 xG and Hull City 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.063 / defence 1.083 | Hull City attack 0.646 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.038 / away 1.121. Data: 29 Derby games / 29 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 43% | Draw 31% | Hull City 26%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Hull City 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Derby 50% | Hull City 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 43% | Draw 31% | Hull City 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Derby 1.12 / Hull City 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.063 / def 1.083 | Hull City attack 0.646 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.038 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Derby (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Hull City xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Hull City kick off?
Derby vs Hull City kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 8 February 2022 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Hull City?
Derby 3 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Derby vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Hull City part of?
Derby vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 43% chance of winning, Hull City a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Derby and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Hull City?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 1W | Draws 0 | Hull City 0W.
What form are Derby and Hull City in?
Derby (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Hull City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Derby's attack at 1.06x the league average against Hull City's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
43%
2.31
31%
3.21
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Derby xG
Total xG
1.90
0.79
Hull City xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
8%
11.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 11.7 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Derby and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Derby and 0.79 for Hull City, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby come into this having played 29 games, going 8W 12D 9L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.10 PPG from 29 outings (9W 5D 15L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.24 PPG, Hull City on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Derby's home form reads 6W 6D 2L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.00 points per game from 14 outings (4W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 0.86 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City in 28%.
Last 29 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Hull City in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 8W 12D 9L in their last 29 games (1.24 PPG), while Hull City have gone 9W 5D 15L in their last 29 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Hull City away?
Derby's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.71 PPG; Hull City away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Derby or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Hull City in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 24 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Derby's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Derby
1
Draws
1
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Hull City?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 4, Hull City have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2026, when Hull City 4-2 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Hull City?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 57%, Hull City 21% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 43% for Derby and 14% for Hull City.
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Hull City in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Derby's recent matches and 21% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Derby's recent games and 14% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Hull City tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Hull City in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Hull City 3-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.12 xG and Hull City 0.79 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Derby beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.06 / defence 1.08 against Hull City attack 0.65 / defence 1.01, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 43% | Draw 31% | Hull City 26%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 38%, Hull City 24%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Hull City's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.24 PPG, Hull City 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Hull City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.