Derby 2-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Hull City travel to Pride Park to take on Derby. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 4 November 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pride Park, Derby have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Pride Park this season.
Across all Championship games this season, Hull City have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hull City have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Derby 1.60 PPG, Hull City 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Derby hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Hull City, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with Derby winning.
The historical record gives Derby a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hull City in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 49% versus Hull City 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Derby 37% | Hull City 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.12 xG and Hull City 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.863 / defence 0.893 | Hull City attack 1.190 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.164. Data: 59 Derby games / 59 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 33% | Draw 28% | Hull City 39%. Fair-value odds: Derby 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Hull City 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Derby 40% | Hull City 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 33% | Draw 28% | Hull City 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Derby 1.12 / Hull City 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.863 / def 0.893 | Hull City attack 1.190 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Hull City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Hull City xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Hull City kick off?
Derby vs Hull City kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 4 November 2025 at Pride Park.
What was the final score in Derby vs Hull City?
Derby 2 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Derby vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Hull City part of?
Derby vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 33% chance of winning, Hull City a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Derby and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Hull City?
Record (4 meetings): Derby 3W | Draws 1 | Hull City 0W.
What form are Derby and Hull City in?
Derby (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Hull City (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Derby's attack at 0.86x the league average against Hull City's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
33%
3.01
28%
3.59
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Derby xG
Total xG
2.36
1.24
Hull City xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
10%
10.37
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.7 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Derby and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Derby and 1.24 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby come into this having played 59 games, going 17W 16D 26L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.20 PPG from 59 outings (18W 17D 24L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.14 PPG, Hull City on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Derby's home form reads 10W 8D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.17 points per game from 29 outings (9W 7D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.12 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Hull City in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 17W 16D 26L in their last 59 games (1.14 PPG), while Hull City have gone 18W 17D 24L in their last 59 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Hull City away?
Derby's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.31 PPG; Hull City away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 24 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Derby's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Derby
1
Draws
1
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Hull City?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 4, Hull City have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2026, when Hull City 4-2 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Hull City?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Hull City see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 38%, Hull City 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Derby and 34% for Hull City.
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Derby have failed to score in 34% of games; Hull City in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Derby's recent matches and 45% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Derby's recent games and 34% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Hull City tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Hull City in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derby defy the odds to beat Hull City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Hull City 2-1 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.12 xG and Hull City 1.24 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Derby beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.86 / defence 0.89 against Hull City attack 1.19 / defence 1.05, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 33% | Draw 28% | Hull City 39%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Derby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 37%, Hull City 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Hull City's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.14 PPG, Hull City 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.