Derby 2-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 42 as Derby welcome Fulham to Pride Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 April 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Derby — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derby have posted 7W 2D 1L at Pride Park Stadium — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fulham stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Fulham have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Fulham's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Derby's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Derby, 0 for Fulham and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Fulham in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 50% versus Fulham 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 40% | Fulham 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 0.89 xG and Fulham 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.030 / defence 1.000 | Fulham attack 1.369 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.036 / away 1.111. Fulham have an above-average attack strength of 1.369 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Derby games / 40 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 22% | Draw 26% | Fulham 52%. Fair-value odds: Derby 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | Fulham 1.92. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Derby 40% | Fulham 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Fulham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 22% | Draw 26% | Fulham 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Derby 0.89 / Fulham 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.030 / def 1.000 | Fulham attack 1.369 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.036 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Fulham (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Fulham xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Fulham kick off?
Derby vs Fulham kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 15 April 2022 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Fulham?
Derby 2 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Derby vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Fulham part of?
Derby vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 22% chance of winning, Fulham a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Derby and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Fulham?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 1 | Fulham 0W.
What form are Derby and Fulham in?
Derby (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Fulham (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Derby's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
22%
4.56
26%
3.86
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Derby xG
Total xG
2.41
1.52
Fulham xG
4.56
22%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
5%
20.87
22%
4.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 13.7 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Derby and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Derby and 1.52 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby come into this having played 40 games, going 12W 12D 16L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 2.08 PPG from 40 outings (25W 8D 7L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Fulham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Derby — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Derby's home form reads 10W 6D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 2.11 points per game from 19 outings (12W 4D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 2.35 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Fulham in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Fulham in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 12W 12D 16L in their last 40 games (1.20 PPG), while Fulham have gone 25W 8D 7L in their last 40 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Fulham away?
Fulham's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.89 PPG; Fulham away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Derby or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Fulham in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Derby
1
Draws
0
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Fulham?
From 2 meetings on record, Derby have won 1, Fulham have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2022, when Derby 2-1 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Fulham?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 53%, Fulham 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Derby) and 42% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Fulham in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Derby's recent matches and 47% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Derby's recent games and 42% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Fulham tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Fulham in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derby defy the odds to beat Fulham 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Fulham 2-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 0.89 xG and Fulham 1.52 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Derby beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.03 / defence 1.00 against Fulham attack 1.37 / defence 0.83, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 22% | Draw 26% | Fulham 52%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Derby win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 40%, Fulham 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Fulham's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Derby winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.