Cardiff 0-1 Sheffield Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sheffield Utd at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cardiff host Sheffield Utd at Cardiff City Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cardiff's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Cardiff City Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cardiff City Stadium.
Sheffield Utd — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sheffield Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sheffield Utd's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Cardiff) versus 1.20 (Sheffield Utd). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cardiff, 2 for Sheffield Utd and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Sheffield Utd winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cardiff in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sheffield Utd in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 46% versus Sheffield Utd 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 47% | Sheffield Utd 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 0.82 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.823 / defence 1.001 | Sheffield Utd attack 1.014 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.133. Sheffield Utd's defence strength of 0.798 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 66 Cardiff games / 66 Sheffield Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 26% | Draw 31% | Sheffield Utd 43%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Sheffield Utd 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sheffield Utd as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sheffield Utd offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 40% | Sheffield Utd 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 26% | Draw 31% | Sheffield Utd 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Cardiff 0.82 / Sheffield Utd 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.823 / def 1.001 | Sheffield Utd attack 1.014 / def 0.798 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Utd (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Sheffield Utd xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd kick off?
Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd?
Cardiff 0 - 1 Sheffield Utd.
Where is Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd part of?
Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 26% chance of winning, Sheffield Utd a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Cardiff and Sheffield Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Sheffield Utd?
Record (2 meetings): Cardiff 0W | Draws 0 | Sheffield Utd 2W.
What form are Cardiff and Sheffield Utd in?
Cardiff (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Sheffield Utd (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cardiff's attack at 0.82x the league average against Sheffield Utd's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sheffield Utd's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Utd Win
26%
3.83
31%
3.27
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Cardiff xG
Total xG
1.97
1.15
Sheffield Utd xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
8%
12.10
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 16.0 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Sheffield Utd expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.15 for Sheffield Utd, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cardiff come into this having played 66 games, going 22W 11D 33L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sheffield Utd sit at 1.70 PPG from 66 outings (32W 16D 18L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Sheffield Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sheffield Utd carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Cardiff — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Cardiff's home form reads 11W 6D 16L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Sheffield Utd have taken 1.52 points per game from 33 outings (14W 8D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cardiff are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Utd are on 1.52 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Sheffield Utd in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
Sheffield Utd
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Sheffield Utd in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 22W 11D 33L in their last 66 games (1.17 PPG), while Sheffield Utd have gone 32W 16D 18L in their last 66 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Sheffield Utd away?
Sheffield Utd's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.18 PPG; Sheffield Utd away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Sheffield Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Sheffield Utd in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sheffield Utd go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Sheffield Utd won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cardiff's record when hosting Sheffield Utd specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Cardiff
0
Draws
6
Sheffield Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Sheffield Utd?
From 6 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 0, Sheffield Utd have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Sheffield Utd last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Sheffield Utd 2-0 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Sheffield Utd?
Sheffield Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Sheffield Utd see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 39%, Sheffield Utd 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Cardiff) and 39% (Sheffield Utd).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Utd in 33%; Cardiff have failed to score in 39% of games; Sheffield Utd in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Sheffield Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Sheffield Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Cardiff's recent matches and 46% of Sheffield Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Sheffield Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Cardiff's recent games and 39% of Sheffield Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Sheffield Utd tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Sheffield Utd in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sheffield Utd edge out Cardiff 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Utd beat Cardiff 0-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 0.82 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.15 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cardiff fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.82 / defence 1.00 against Sheffield Utd attack 1.01 / defence 0.80, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 26% | Draw 31% | Sheffield Utd 43%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 47%, Sheffield Utd 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sheffield Utd arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.