Cardiff 0-0 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs Preston fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cardiff City Stadium plays host to Cardiff versus Preston in Championship, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Saturday 12 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cardiff have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Cardiff's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Cardiff City Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Preston's overall Championship record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Preston's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Cardiff against 1.70 for Preston. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cardiff lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Cardiff winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cardiff half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Preston half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 39% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 53% versus Preston 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 56% | Preston 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 0.93 xG and Preston 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.930 / defence 1.035 | Preston attack 0.774 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.063 / away 1.086. Data: 36 Cardiff games / 36 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 35% | Draw 33% | Preston 32%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Preston 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Preston's lower xG of 0.87 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cardiff if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 40% | Preston 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 35% | Draw 33% | Preston 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Cardiff 0.93 / Preston 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.930 / def 1.035 | Preston attack 0.774 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.063 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Preston xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Preston kick off?
Cardiff vs Preston kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Preston?
Cardiff 0 - 0 Preston.
Where is Cardiff vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Preston part of?
Cardiff vs Preston is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 35% chance of winning, Preston a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Cardiff and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Preston?
Record (1 meetings): Cardiff 1W | Draws 0 | Preston 0W.
What form are Cardiff and Preston in?
Cardiff (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Preston (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cardiff's attack rating (0.93) and Preston's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Preston's attack (0.77x) against Cardiff's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
35%
2.84
33%
3.04
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Cardiff xG
Total xG
1.80
0.87
Preston xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 14.4 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Cardiff and 0.87 for Preston, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cardiff come into this having played 36 games, going 12W 6D 18L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Preston sit at 1.39 PPG from 36 outings (12W 14D 10L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Cardiff against 1.39 for Preston. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cardiff's home form reads 6W 2D 10L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Preston have taken 1.28 points per game from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cardiff are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.11 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Current Season
Preston
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Preston in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 12W 6D 18L in their last 36 games (1.17 PPG), while Preston have gone 12W 14D 10L in their last 36 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Preston away?
Preston's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.11 PPG; Preston away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Preston been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Preston in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cardiff have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Preston — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cardiff
3
Draws
3
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Preston?
From 8 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 2, Preston have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2025, when Preston 2-2 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Preston?
Preston have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Preston see a goal before the break in 39% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 39%, Preston 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Cardiff) and 39% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Preston in 33%; Cardiff have failed to score in 44% of games; Preston in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Preston?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Cardiff's recent matches and 39% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Cardiff's recent games and 39% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Preston tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Preston in 39% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cardiff's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff and Preston finished level at 0-0 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 0.93 xG and Preston 0.87 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cardiff fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Preston landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Preston attack 0.77 / defence 0.94, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 35% | Draw 33% | Preston 32%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 56%, Preston 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Preston's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.17 PPG, Preston 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.