Burnley 1-2 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burnley at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
QPR make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley in Championship, Regular Season - 44. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Burnley have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 5D 0L. Last five: D W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Burnley at Turf Moor this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Turf Moor. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Burnley are significantly better at Turf Moor than their overall form suggests.
QPR (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Championship outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Burnley. A 1.50 PPG lead over QPR (2.00 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Burnley lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2022, ended 3–0 with Burnley winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (80 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (80 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 50% versus QPR 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 44% | QPR 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 2.45 xG and QPR 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 1.361 / defence 0.684 | QPR attack 0.889 / defence 1.442. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.088. Burnley carry an above-average attack strength of 1.361 — their λ of 2.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. QPR bring a strong defensive rating of 1.442 — this is suppressing Burnley's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Burnley's defence rating of 0.684 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Burnley games / 89 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 76% | Draw 16% | QPR 7%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 1.32 | Draw 6.25 | QPR 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Burnley (76%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 30% | QPR 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 76% | Draw 16% | QPR 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 45% | xG Burnley 2.45 / QPR 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 1.361 / def 0.684 | QPR attack 0.889 / def 1.442 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Burnley (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.45
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.66
QPR xG
45%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs QPR kick off?
Burnley vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs QPR?
Burnley 1 - 2 QPR.
Where is Burnley vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs QPR part of?
Burnley vs QPR is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 76% chance of winning, QPR a 7% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Burnley and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and QPR?
Record (1 meetings): Burnley 1W | Draws 0 | QPR 0W.
What form are Burnley and QPR in?
Burnley (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. QPR (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Burnley's attack rating (1.36) and QPR's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 2.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.89x) against Burnley's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 42/89 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
76%
1.31
16%
6.17
7%
13.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
3 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.45
Burnley xG
Total xG
3.12
0.66
QPR xG
1.31
76%
Home win
6.17
16%
Draw
13.35
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
9%
11.63
Win to Nil
39%
2.54
1%
155.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Burnley and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 2.45 expected goals for Burnley and 0.66 for QPR, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs QPR?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 80 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 33W 28D 19L record — D-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
QPR's form line: 27W 17D 36L from 80 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Burnley against 1.23 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.85 PPG from 39 outings (20W 12D 7L).
On the road, QPR have gone 12W 8D 19L from 39 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Burnley are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.05 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 80 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and QPR in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 33W 28D 19L in their last 80 games (1.59 PPG), while QPR have gone 27W 17D 36L in their last 80 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or QPR away?
Burnley's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.85 PPG; QPR away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Burnley or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, QPR in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Burnley won 0-5 on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Burnley
1
Draws
1
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and QPR?
From 4 meetings on record, Burnley have won 2, QPR have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when QPR 0-5 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and QPR?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burnley see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 44%, QPR 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Burnley) and 51% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; QPR in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Burnley's recent matches and 54% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Burnley's recent games and 51% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and QPR tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, QPR in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as QPR defy the odds to beat Burnley 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Burnley 1-2 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 2.45 xG and QPR 0.66 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Burnley fell 1.5 short of their projected output. QPR outscored their 0.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 1.36 / defence 0.68 against QPR attack 0.89 / defence 1.44, drawn from 42/89 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 76% | Draw 16% | QPR 7%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 76%. Instead the game produced a QPR win, an outcome the model had rated at just 7% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 44%, QPR 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
QPR's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.59 PPG, QPR 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. QPR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.