Burnley 3-0 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burnley at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Cardiff encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 46 as Burnley welcome Cardiff to Turf Moor. Kick-off is set for Monday 8 May 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Burnley — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Burnley at Turf Moor this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Turf Moor. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cardiff stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Championship this season, Cardiff have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Burnley carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Burnley, 0 for Cardiff and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Burnley in-play and half-time data (83 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Cardiff in-play and half-time data (83 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 51% versus Cardiff 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 45% | Cardiff 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.74 xG and Cardiff 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 1.259 / defence 0.804 | Cardiff attack 1.066 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.103. Burnley carry an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Burnley games / 91 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 56% | Draw 25% | Cardiff 20%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Cardiff 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Burnley (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burnley at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Burnley 30% | Cardiff 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Monday 8 May 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 56% | Draw 25% | Cardiff 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Burnley 1.74 / Cardiff 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 1.259 / def 0.804 | Cardiff attack 1.066 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Burnley (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Cardiff xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Cardiff kick off?
Burnley vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 8 May 2023 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Cardiff?
Burnley 3 - 0 Cardiff.
Where is Burnley vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Cardiff part of?
Burnley vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 56% chance of winning, Cardiff a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Burnley and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Cardiff?
Record (1 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 1 | Cardiff 0W.
What form are Burnley and Cardiff in?
Burnley (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Cardiff (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Burnley's attack at 1.26x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/91 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
56%
1.80
25%
4.06
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.68
0.94
Cardiff xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
3%
28.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.2 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Burnley and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Burnley and 0.94 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Cardiff?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burnley's recent record stands at 35W 28D 20L from 83 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Cardiff, meanwhile, have gone 25W 16D 42L across 83 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Burnley by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cardiff heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Burnley have managed 20W 12D 9L from 41 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cardiff's away record stands at 13W 6D 22L across 41 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 0.96 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 83 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Cardiff
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 35W 28D 20L in their last 83 games (1.60 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 25W 16D 42L in their last 83 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Cardiff away?
Burnley's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.76 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Burnley or Cardiff been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cardiff in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Burnley have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2024, when Burnley won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burnley's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Burnley
1
Draws
0
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Cardiff?
From 4 meetings on record, Burnley have won 3, Cardiff have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2025, when Cardiff 1-2 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Cardiff?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 46%, Cardiff 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Burnley) and 54% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Cardiff in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Cardiff?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Burnley's recent matches and 49% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Burnley's recent games and 54% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Cardiff tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Burnley run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Cardiff 3-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 46, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.74 xG and Cardiff 0.94 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cardiff landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 1.26 / defence 0.80 against Cardiff attack 1.07 / defence 1.11, drawn from 45/91 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 56% | Draw 25% | Cardiff 20%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 45%, Cardiff 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cardiff's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.98 average — tighter than their form line. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.