Blackburn 0-1 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ipswich at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Blackburn vs Ipswich encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Blackburn and Ipswich meet at Ewood Park in Championship, Regular Season - 39. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 March 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Blackburn's overall Championship record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Blackburn have posted 2W 5D 3L at Ewood Park — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ipswich have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Championship this season, Ipswich have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Ipswich arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Blackburn lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 7.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 3–4 with Ipswich winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Blackburn half-time and goal-timing data (84 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Ipswich half-time and goal-timing data (84 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 52% versus Ipswich 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 54% | Ipswich 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.32 xG and Ipswich 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 0.973 / defence 1.158 | Ipswich attack 1.093 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.212. Data: 84 Blackburn games / 38 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Blackburn 33% | Draw 25% | Ipswich 42%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Ipswich 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ipswich are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ipswich if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Blackburn 90% | Ipswich 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs Ipswich | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 33% | Draw 25% | Ipswich 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Blackburn 1.32 / Ipswich 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 0.973 / def 1.158 | Ipswich attack 1.093 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Ipswich xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackburn vs Ipswich kick off?
Blackburn vs Ipswich kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 29 March 2024 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs Ipswich?
Blackburn 0 - 1 Ipswich.
Where is Blackburn vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs Ipswich part of?
Blackburn vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 33% chance of winning, Ipswich a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Blackburn and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Blackburn vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Ipswich?
Record (1 meetings): Blackburn 0W | Draws 0 | Ipswich 1W.
What form are Blackburn and Ipswich in?
Blackburn (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Ipswich (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Blackburn's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Ipswich's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Ipswich's attack (1.09x) against Blackburn's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 84/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
33%
3.06
25%
4.02
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Blackburn xG
Total xG
2.85
1.53
Ipswich xG
3.06
33%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
7%
14.17
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Blackburn and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Blackburn and 1.53 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Blackburn come into this having played 84 games, going 31W 18D 35L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-D.
On the other side, Ipswich sit at 2.13 PPG from 84 outings (52W 23D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Ipswich carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Blackburn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Blackburn's home form reads 19W 9D 14L across 42 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Ipswich have taken 1.88 points per game from 42 outings (22W 13D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Blackburn are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 2.15 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 84 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackburn and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 31W 18D 35L in their last 84 games (1.32 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 52W 23D 9L in their last 84 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or Ipswich away?
Ipswich's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.57 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Blackburn or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Blackburn have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Ipswich in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ipswich won 3-0 on 17 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Blackburn have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ipswich — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Blackburn
1
Draws
3
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Ipswich?
From 4 meetings on record, Blackburn have won 0, Ipswich have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Ipswich 3-0 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 60%, Ipswich 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Blackburn) and 50% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Ipswich in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackburn play Ipswich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Blackburn's recent matches and 50% of Ipswich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Blackburn vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Blackburn's recent games and 50% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackburn and Ipswich tend to score early?
Blackburn have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ipswich edge out Blackburn 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Blackburn 0-1 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 39, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.32 xG and Ipswich 1.53 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Blackburn fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.97 / defence 1.16 against Ipswich attack 1.09 / defence 1.01, drawn from 84/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 33% | Draw 25% | Ipswich 42%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 54%, Ipswich 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ipswich's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.32. Form held, and they took the win. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Ipswich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.