Birmingham 0-0 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Birmingham (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Birmingham face West Brom.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Birmingham and West Brom meet at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park in Championship, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 10 February 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Birmingham (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park, Birmingham have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Birmingham are significantly better at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park than their overall form suggests.
West Brom have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
West Brom away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Birmingham. A 1.10 PPG lead over West Brom (1.60 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Birmingham, 2 for West Brom and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Birmingham half-time and goal-timing data (77 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
West Brom half-time and goal-timing data (77 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Birmingham 53% versus West Brom 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Birmingham 46% | West Brom 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Birmingham 2.02 xG and West Brom 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Birmingham attack 1.236 / defence 0.992 | West Brom attack 0.762 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.153. West Brom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Birmingham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Birmingham games / 77 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Birmingham 63% | Draw 23% | West Brom 14%. Fair-value odds: Birmingham 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | West Brom 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Birmingham (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Birmingham at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Birmingham 80% | West Brom 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Birmingham vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Birmingham 63% | Draw 23% | West Brom 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 52% | xG Birmingham 2.02 / West Brom 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Birmingham attack 1.236 / def 0.992 | West Brom attack 0.762 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Birmingham (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Birmingham xG
Expected Goals
0.87
West Brom xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Birmingham vs West Brom kick off?
Birmingham vs West Brom kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 10 February 2026 at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.
What was the final score in Birmingham vs West Brom?
Birmingham 0 - 0 West Brom.
Where is Birmingham vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.
What competition is Birmingham vs West Brom part of?
Birmingham vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Birmingham vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Birmingham a 63% chance of winning, West Brom a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Birmingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Birmingham and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Birmingham vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and West Brom?
Record (7 meetings): Birmingham 4W | Draws 1 | West Brom 2W.
What form are Birmingham and West Brom in?
Birmingham (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. West Brom (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Birmingham's attack at 1.24x the league average against West Brom's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — West Brom's attack (0.76x) against Birmingham's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 31/77 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Birmingham Win
63%
1.59
23%
4.38
14%
7.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Birmingham xG
Total xG
2.89
0.87
West Brom xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
7.02
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
13%
7.53
Win to Nil
26%
3.80
2%
52.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Birmingham vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Birmingham and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Birmingham and 0.87 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Birmingham vs West Brom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Birmingham's recent record stands at 46W 18D 13L from 77 games, a 2.03 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five.
West Brom, meanwhile, have gone 24W 25D 28L across 77 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Birmingham by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over West Brom heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Birmingham have managed 27W 10D 1L from 38 games — 2.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
West Brom's away record stands at 6W 12D 20L across 38 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of West Brom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Birmingham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Birmingham are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.16 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Birmingham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Birmingham
Current Season
West Brom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Birmingham and West Brom in coming into this match?
Birmingham have gone 46W 18D 13L in their last 77 games (2.03 PPG), while West Brom have gone 24W 25D 28L in their last 77 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Birmingham at home or West Brom away?
Birmingham's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Birmingham at home: 2.39 PPG; West Brom away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Birmingham or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Birmingham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, West Brom in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 10 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Birmingham have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against West Brom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Birmingham
2
Draws
2
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and West Brom?
From 8 meetings on record, Birmingham have won 4, West Brom have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Birmingham and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2026, when Birmingham 0-0 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between Birmingham and West Brom?
Birmingham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Birmingham 53%, West Brom 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Birmingham) and 45% (West Brom).
On the defensive side: Birmingham keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; West Brom in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Birmingham home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Birmingham play West Brom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Birmingham's games and 60% of West Brom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Birmingham vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Birmingham's recent games and 45% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Birmingham and West Brom tend to score early?
Birmingham have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, West Brom in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Birmingham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Birmingham and West Brom finished level at 0-0 at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Birmingham 2.02 xG and West Brom 0.87 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Birmingham fell 2.0 short of their projected output. West Brom landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Birmingham attack 1.24 / defence 0.99 against West Brom attack 0.76 / defence 1.25, drawn from 31/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Birmingham 63% | Draw 23% | West Brom 14%, with Birmingham to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Birmingham 46%, West Brom 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Birmingham's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
West Brom's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Birmingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.