Zlin 2-4 Teplice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Teplice at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Relegation Group - 3 sees Teplice travel to Stadion Letna to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 12 May 2026, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion Letna, Zlin have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Teplice — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Teplice away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zlin at 1.10 PPG versus Teplice's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for Zlin, 3 for Teplice and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 3–2 with Zlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Zlin trading profile (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Teplice trading profile (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 56% versus Teplice 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 56% | Teplice 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.47 xG and Teplice 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.040 / defence 1.368 | Teplice attack 0.977 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.200. Data: 30 Zlin games / 60 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 34% | Draw 26% | Teplice 40%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Teplice 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 50% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 3 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 May 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 34% | Draw 26% | Teplice 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Zlin 1.47 / Teplice 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.040 / def 1.368 | Teplice attack 0.977 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Teplice (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Teplice xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Teplice kick off?
Zlin vs Teplice kicked off at 16:30 on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at Stadion Letna.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Teplice?
Zlin 2 - 4 Teplice.
Where is Zlin vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Teplice part of?
Zlin vs Teplice is a Relegation Group - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 34% chance of winning, Teplice a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Zlin and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Teplice?
Record (9 meetings): Zlin 5W | Draws 1 | Teplice 3W.
What form are Zlin and Teplice in?
Zlin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Teplice (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zlin's attack at 1.04x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
34%
2.92
26%
3.90
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.08
1.60
Teplice xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
7%
14.50
9%
10.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.9 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Zlin and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Zlin and 1.60 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zlin come into this having played 32 games, going 10W 8D 14L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.03 PPG from 32 outings (7W 12D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 1.19 PPG, Teplice on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Zlin's home form reads 6W 3D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 0.93 points per game from 15 outings (2W 8D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Current Season
Teplice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Teplice in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 10W 8D 14L in their last 32 games (1.19 PPG), while Teplice have gone 7W 12D 13L in their last 32 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Teplice away?
Zlin's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.40 PPG; Teplice away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Zlin or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Teplice in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zlin and Teplice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2021, when Teplice won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Zlin
1
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 5, Teplice have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Zlin 2-4 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Teplice?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 60%, Teplice 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Zlin and 47% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Zlin's games and 60% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Zlin's matches and 47% of Teplice's.
Do Zlin and Teplice tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Teplice in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Zlin 2-4 at Stadion Letna, Relegation Group - 3, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.47 xG and Teplice 1.60 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Teplice outscored their 1.60 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.04 / defence 1.37 against Teplice attack 0.98 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 34% | Draw 26% | Teplice 40%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 56%, Teplice 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 1.19 PPG, Teplice 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.