Zlin 0-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 46%, yet in-form Mlada Boleslav provide a compelling counter-argument — this Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zlin host Mlada Boleslav at Stadion Letná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 July 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Zlin — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Zlin haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Zlin's home record at Stadion Letná: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Zlin are significantly better at Stadion Letná than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Mlada Boleslav have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Mlada Boleslav haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Mlada Boleslav's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Mlada Boleslav — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Zlin, 2 for Mlada Boleslav and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Zlin in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zlin 62% and Mlada Boleslav 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 59% | Mlada Boleslav 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.56 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.028 / defence 1.043 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.055 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.057. Data: 30 Zlin games / 30 Mlada Boleslav games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Zlin 46% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 28%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Mlada Boleslav 3.57. Zlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zlin are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mlada Boleslav (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 70% | Mlada Boleslav 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 46% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Zlin 1.56 / Mlada Boleslav 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.028 / def 1.043 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.055 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Zlin (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Mlada Boleslav xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav?
Zlin 0 - 0 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 46% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Zlin and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (2 meetings): Zlin 0W | Draws 0 | Mlada Boleslav 2W.
What form are Zlin and Mlada Boleslav in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Zlin (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zlin's attack at 1.03x the league average against Mlada Boleslav's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.92
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.72
1.16
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
6%
16.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Zlin and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Zlin and 1.16 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, Zlin have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 9W 9D 16L record — D-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. Zlin haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Mlada Boleslav's form line: 14W 6D 14L from 34 games, 1.41 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. Mlada Boleslav haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 1.06 PPG, Mlada Boleslav on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.41 PPG from 17 outings (7W 3D 7L).
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 6W 3D 8L from 17 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.56 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Pre-Season
Mlada Boleslav
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 9W 9D 16L in their last 34 games (1.06 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 14W 6D 14L in their last 34 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Zlin's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.41 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zlin and Mlada Boleslav runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-9 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Zlin
3
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Mlada Boleslav?
From 9 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 1-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 65%, Mlada Boleslav 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Zlin and 59% for Mlada Boleslav. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Zlin's games and 65% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Zlin's matches and 59% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Zlin and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Zlin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 1, as Zlin and Mlada Boleslav drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.56 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.16 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Zlin fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.03 / defence 1.04 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.05 / defence 0.99, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 46% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 28%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 59%, Mlada Boleslav 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 1.06 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.