Zlin vs FK Jablonec – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zlin vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 23 as Zlin welcome FK Jablonec to Stadion Letna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zlin at Stadion Letna this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Zlin are significantly better at Stadion Letna than their overall form suggests.
FK Jablonec — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. FK Jablonec's 1.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Zlin's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Zlin, 2 for FK Jablonec and 7 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 0–3 with FK Jablonec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Zlin in-play and half-time data (40 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (40 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 52% versus FK Jablonec 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 52% | FK Jablonec 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 0.91 xG and FK Jablonec 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.686 / defence 1.067 | FK Jablonec attack 0.880 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.288. Zlin's attack strength of 0.686 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Zlin games / 35 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 27% | Draw 31% | FK Jablonec 42%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | FK Jablonec 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 40% | FK Jablonec 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 27% | Draw 31% | FK Jablonec 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Zlin 0.91 / FK Jablonec 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.686 / def 1.067 | FK Jablonec attack 0.880 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.21
FK Jablonec xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Zlin vs FK Jablonec is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Stadion Letna.
Where is Zlin vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs FK Jablonec part of?
Zlin vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 27% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Zlin and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and FK Jablonec?
Record (10 meetings): Zlin 1W | Draws 7 | FK Jablonec 2W.
What form are Zlin and FK Jablonec in?
Zlin (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zlin's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
27%
3.70
31%
3.27
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.12
1.21
FK Jablonec xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
8%
12.38
17%
5.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 14.6 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Zlin and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Zlin and 1.21 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zlin's recent record stands at 10W 8D 22L from 40 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 13L across 40 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FK Jablonec by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zlin heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Zlin have managed 7W 4D 10L from 21 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 9W 2D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Zlin are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.27 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Early Season
FK Jablonec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 10W 8D 22L in their last 40 games (0.95 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 19W 8D 13L in their last 40 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or FK Jablonec away?
FK Jablonec's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.19 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Zlin or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zlin
7
Draws
2
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, FK Jablonec have won 2, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Zlin 0-3 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 52%, FK Jablonec 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Zlin) and 33% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 38%; Zlin have failed to score in 29% of games; FK Jablonec in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Zlin's recent matches and 29% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zlin vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Zlin's recent games and 33% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zlin and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.