Zlin 2-2 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zlin vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zlin and Baník Ostrava meet at Stadion Letná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Zlin's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's home record at Stadion Letná: 2W 1D 5L from 8 Czech Liga appearances (0.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Baník Ostrava have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 4W 2D 2L from 8 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Baník Ostrava arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Zlin — key trading statistics (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Baník Ostrava — key trading statistics (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zlin 47% and Baník Ostrava 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 60% | Baník Ostrava 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.09 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.787 / defence 1.423 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.930 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.280. Zlin's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Zlin games / 15 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 24% | Draw 24% | Baník Ostrava 51%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 4.17 | Draw 4.17 | Baník Ostrava 1.96. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 50% | Baník Ostrava 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 24% | Draw 24% | Baník Ostrava 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Zlin 1.09 / Baník Ostrava 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.787 / def 1.423 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.930 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Baník Ostrava xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Zlin vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Zlin 2 - 2 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Zlin vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Zlin vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 24% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Zlin and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Baník Ostrava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zlin and Baník Ostrava in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Zlin's attack rating (0.79) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baník Ostrava's attack (0.93x) against Zlin's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
24%
4.09
24%
4.15
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.79
1.69
Baník Ostrava xG
4.09
24%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
18%
5.44
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
4%
22.24
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Zlin and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Zlin and 1.69 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, Zlin have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 4W 2D 9L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 8W 4D 3L from 15 games, 1.87 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-W. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Baník Ostrava are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Zlin have posted 0.88 PPG from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 2D 2L from 8 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Zlin are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.93 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava in 73%.
Last 15 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 4W 2D 9L in their last 15 games (0.93 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 8W 4D 3L in their last 15 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Baník Ostrava's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 0.88 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Zlin or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Baník Ostrava have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Baník Ostrava won 5-1 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zlin have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zlin
3
Draws
6
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, Baník Ostrava have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Zlin 0-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Baník Ostrava see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 50%, Baník Ostrava 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Zlin) and 50% (Baník Ostrava). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Zlin's games and 62% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Zlin's matches and 50% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Zlin and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zlin and Baník Ostrava share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 16, as Zlin and Baník Ostrava drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.09 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.69 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Zlin beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.79 / defence 1.42 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.93 / defence 1.02, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 24% | Draw 24% | Baník Ostrava 51%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 60%, Baník Ostrava 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.