Zlin 0-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zlin and Baník Ostrava meet at Stadion Letná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Zlin's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's home record at Stadion Letná: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Baník Ostrava have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Zlin lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 1–5 with Baník Ostrava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Zlin — key trading statistics (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Baník Ostrava — key trading statistics (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zlin 63% and Baník Ostrava 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 60% | Baník Ostrava 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.91 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.166 / defence 1.165 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.102 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.289. Data: 52 Zlin games / 52 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 43% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 33%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Baník Ostrava 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zlin are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zlin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 80% | Baník Ostrava 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 43% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 70% | xG Zlin 1.91 / Baník Ostrava 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.166 / def 1.165 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.102 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Zlin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Baník Ostrava xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Zlin vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Zlin 0 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Zlin vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Zlin vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 43% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Zlin and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Baník Ostrava?
Record (5 meetings): Zlin 1W | Draws 2 | Baník Ostrava 2W.
What form are Zlin and Baník Ostrava in?
Zlin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Zlin's attack rating (1.17) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baník Ostrava's attack (1.10x) against Zlin's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
43%
2.33
25%
4.08
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.56
1.65
Baník Ostrava xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.35
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
15%
6.72
Win to Nil
8%
12.20
5%
20.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Zlin and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Zlin and 1.65 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Zlin have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 12W 19D 26L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 20W 13D 24L from 57 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Zlin against 1.28 for Baník Ostrava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.41 PPG from 27 outings (10W 8D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Zlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 8W 8D 11L from 27 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Zlin are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.47 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 12W 19D 26L in their last 57 games (0.96 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 20W 13D 24L in their last 57 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Zlin's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.41 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Baník Ostrava have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Baník Ostrava won 5-1 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zlin have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zlin
3
Draws
6
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, Baník Ostrava have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Zlin 0-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Zlin, 63% for Baník Ostrava — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Zlin) and 52% (Baník Ostrava). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Zlin's games and 63% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Zlin's matches and 52% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Zlin and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Baník Ostrava defy the odds to beat Zlin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Zlin 0-1 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.91 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.65 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zlin fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.17 / defence 1.17 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.10 / defence 1.03, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 43% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 33%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Baník Ostrava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 60%, Baník Ostrava 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 0.96 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.