Teplice 2-2 Karviná – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Teplice at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech plays host to Teplice versus Karviná in Czech Liga (matchday 22). Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Teplice's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Teplice's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Karviná have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Karviná have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Teplice's favour (1.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Teplice, 0 for Karviná and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Teplice 1–0 Karviná — a Teplice win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (home games).
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 48% versus Karviná 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 33% | Karviná 57%). Note also that Karviná surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Teplice recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.44 xG and Karviná 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.883 / defence 0.731 | Karviná attack 0.729 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.250. Karviná's attack rating of 0.729 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. Teplice have a tight defence (rating 0.731), which is pulling Karviná's projected output down. Data: built from Teplice's last 51 games and Karviná's last 21.
Result probabilities: Teplice 55% | Draw 29% | Karviná 16%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.82 | Draw 3.49 | Karviná 6.07. The model has a clear lean to Teplice (55%) — a 26pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Teplice's last 10 home games and Karviná's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Teplice 30% (last 10 home games) | Karviná 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 22 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 55% | Draw 29% | Karviná 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Teplice 1.44 / Karviná 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.883 / def 0.731 | Karviná attack 0.729 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Teplice (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Karviná xG
38%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Teplice vs Karviná FAQs
What time does Teplice vs Karviná kick off?
Teplice vs Karviná kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Karviná?
Teplice 2 - 2 Karviná.
Where is Teplice vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Karviná part of?
Teplice vs Karviná is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 22) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 55% chance of winning, Karviná a 16% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Teplice and Karviná will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Teplice vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Teplice's attack rating (0.88) and Karviná's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (0.73x) against Teplice's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from Teplice's last 51 games and Karviná's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
55%
1.82
29%
3.49
16%
6.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.10
0.67
Karviná xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
6.07
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
28%
3.55
4%
25.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 11.7 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Teplice vs Karviná Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Teplice and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Teplice and 0.67 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Karviná?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 7W 6D 8L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Karviná's form line: 4W 3D 14L from 21 games, 0.71 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Teplice are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Karviná.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.60 PPG from their last 10 home games (4W 4D 2L).
On the road, Karviná have gone 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 0.95 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Karviná
Blended
Teplice (Home) vs Karviná (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Teplice
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Teplice vs Karviná Form FAQs
What form are Teplice and Karviná in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 7W 6D 8L in their last 21 games (1.29 PPG), while Karviná have gone 4W 3D 14L in their last 21 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Karviná away?
Teplice's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.60 PPG; Karviná away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Teplice or Karviná been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Karviná in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Teplice and Karviná, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karviná won Karviná 4-1 Teplice on 30 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Teplice
4
Draws
2
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Teplice vs Karviná H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Karviná?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Teplice have won 3, Karviná have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Karviná last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Teplice 2-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Karviná?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 30%, Karviná 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 10% for Teplice and 50% for Karviná.
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 40% of games; Karviná in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Teplice vs Karviná Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Teplice and Karviná matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Teplice's recent matches and 50% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Teplice and Karviná matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 10% of Teplice's recent games and 50% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Karviná matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Teplice's recent matches and 60% of Karviná's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice and Karviná share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice and Karviná finished level at 2-2 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.44 xG and Karviná 0.67 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Karviná outscored their 0.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.88 / defence 0.73 against Karviná attack 0.73 / defence 1.05, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 55% | Draw 29% | Karviná 16%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 33%, Karviná 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Karviná's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Teplice arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.