Teplice 1-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Teplice host Hradec Králové at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Teplice — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Teplice's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Hradec Králové away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Teplice 0.50 PPG, Hradec Králové 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Teplice register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Hradec Králové in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Teplice have won 0, Hradec Králové 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 1–4 with Hradec Králové winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Teplice in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 54% versus Hradec Králové 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 64% | Hradec Králové 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.25 xG and Hradec Králové 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.865 / defence 1.206 | Hradec Králové attack 1.171 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.273. Data: 54 Teplice games / 54 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 24% | Draw 28% | Hradec Králové 48%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Hradec Králové 2.08. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 70% | Hradec Králové 60% BTTS from recent games.

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