Slovan Liberec 5-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Stadion u Nisy to face Slovan Liberec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Slovan Liberec (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Slovan Liberec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovan Liberec's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadion u Nisy this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Slovan Liberec are significantly better at Stadion u Nisy than their overall form suggests.
Teplice have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.00 for Teplice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 42% versus Teplice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 36% | Teplice 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.34 xG and Teplice 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.005 / defence 0.940 | Teplice attack 0.948 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 1.225. Data: 31 Slovan Liberec games / 31 Teplice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 42% | Draw 27% | Teplice 30%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Teplice 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Slovan Liberec 40% | Teplice 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 42% | Draw 27% | Teplice 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.34 / Teplice 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.005 / def 0.940 | Teplice attack 0.948 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.307 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Teplice xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Teplice kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Slovan Liberec 5 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Teplice part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 42% chance of winning, Teplice a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Teplice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Teplice in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Teplice (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Slovan Liberec's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.95x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.68
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.43
1.09
Teplice xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
8%
12.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.9 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.09 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 33 games, going 11W 7D 15L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 0.94 PPG from 33 outings (8W 7D 18L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 0.94 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 7W 2D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 0.87 points per game from 15 outings (3W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovan Liberec are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.12 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Teplice in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 11W 7D 15L in their last 33 games (1.21 PPG), while Teplice have gone 8W 7D 18L in their last 33 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Teplice away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.53 PPG; Teplice away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 3-0 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
6
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 1, Teplice have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Slovan Liberec 0-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 33%, Teplice 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Slovan Liberec) and 60% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 47% of games; Teplice in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 47% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 60% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Teplice tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Teplice in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slovan Liberec run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Teplice 5-1 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.34 xG and Teplice 1.09 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Slovan Liberec beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against Teplice attack 0.95 / defence 1.02, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 42% | Draw 27% | Teplice 30%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 36%, Teplice 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (33 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (33 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.21 PPG, Teplice 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Teplice (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.