Slovan Liberec 0-2 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 36%, yet in-form Sparta Praha provide a compelling counter-argument — this Slovan Liberec vs Sparta Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slovan Liberec and Sparta Praha meet at Stadion U Nisy in Czech Liga (Championship Group - 4). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Slovan Liberec's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Slovan Liberec at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Slovan Liberec are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Praha (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Sparta Praha's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Sparta Praha arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Slovan Liberec's last 10 home games and Sparta Praha's last 10 away games) — Slovan Liberec have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Sparta Praha in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Sparta Praha have the stronger record — 6 wins to Slovan Liberec's 2, with 1 draw.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2025, ended Slovan Liberec 2–2 Sparta Praha — a draw.
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sparta Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 45% versus Sparta Praha 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 43% | Sparta Praha 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.01 xG and Sparta Praha 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.864 / defence 0.741 | Sparta Praha attack 0.995 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.201. Slovan Liberec have a tight defence (rating 0.741), which is pulling Sparta Praha's projected output down. Data: built from Slovan Liberec's last 60 games and Sparta Praha's last 60.
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 36% | Draw 34% | Sparta Praha 30%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.75 | Draw 2.95 | Sparta Praha 3.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sparta Praha (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Slovan Liberec's last 10 home games and Sparta Praha's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Slovan Liberec 30% (last 10 home games) | Sparta Praha 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Group - 4 | Venue: Stadion U Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 36% | Draw 34% | Sparta Praha 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Slovan Liberec 1.01 / Sparta Praha 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.864 / def 0.741 | Sparta Praha attack 0.995 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Sparta Praha xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Sparta Praha FAQs
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Stadion U Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Sparta Praha?
Slovan Liberec 0 - 2 Sparta Praha.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion U Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Sparta Praha part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Sparta Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (Championship Group - 4) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 36% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Sparta Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Slovan Liberec's attack rating (0.86) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (0.99x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from Slovan Liberec's last 60 games and Sparta Praha's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
36%
2.75
34%
2.95
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
1.90
0.89
Sparta Praha xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
11%
9.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Sparta Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.89 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 65 games, going 24W 19D 22L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Sparta Praha sit at 1.91 PPG from 65 outings (37W 13D 15L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 14W 10D 8L across their last 32 home games, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Praha have taken 1.69 points per game from their last 32 away games (16W 6D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.80 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha in 62%.
Defensively: Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Current Season
Sparta Praha
Current Season
Slovan Liberec (Home) vs Sparta Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovan Liberec
Current Season
Sparta Praha
Current Season
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Sparta Praha Form FAQs
What form are Slovan Liberec and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 24W 19D 22L in their last 65 games (1.40 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 37W 13D 15L in their last 65 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.62 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Slovan Liberec or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 1W 0D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Slovan Liberec
1
Draws
7
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Sparta Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Sparta Praha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovan Liberec have won 2, Sparta Praha have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Sparta Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Slovan Liberec 0-2 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 38%, Sparta Praha 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Slovan Liberec) and 53% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 34%; Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Sparta Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovan Liberec and Sparta Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 53% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slovan Liberec and Sparta Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 53% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Sparta Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 78% of Sparta Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Slovan Liberec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Slovan Liberec 0-2 at Stadion U Nisy, Championship Group - 4, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.01 xG and Sparta Praha 0.89 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Slovan Liberec fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sparta Praha outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.86 / defence 0.74 against Sparta Praha attack 0.99 / defence 0.85, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 36% | Draw 34% | Sparta Praha 30%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Sparta Praha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 43%, Sparta Praha 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.