Slovan Liberec 2-1 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion u Nisy plays host to Slovan Liberec versus Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 18 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slovan Liberec have collected 0.29 PPG across 7 Czech Liga outings this season: 0W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.43 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Slovan Liberec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 0W 0D 4L at Stadion u Nisy — 0.00 PPG.
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 2D 3L from 7 games (1.14 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.57 per game and conceding 1.43. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 2L across 3 road games this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.14 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Mlada Boleslav arrive in superior form — a 0.85 PPG advantage (1.14 vs 0.29) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Slovan Liberec — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 71% of games.
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 29% versus Mlada Boleslav 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 29% | Mlada Boleslav 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 0.65 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.483 / defence 1.354 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.708 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.232. Slovan Liberec's attack strength of 0.483 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Slovan Liberec games / 7 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 20% | Draw 31% | Mlada Boleslav 49%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 5.00 | Draw 3.23 | Mlada Boleslav 2.04. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Slovan Liberec's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slovan Liberec 0% | Mlada Boleslav 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 20% | Draw 31% | Mlada Boleslav 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 33% | xG Slovan Liberec 0.65 / Mlada Boleslav 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.483 / def 1.354 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.708 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Mlada Boleslav xG
33%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Slovan Liberec 2 - 1 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 20% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 49% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 0W-2D-5L in 7 | 0.29 PPG | GF 0.43 / GA 1.71 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 1.43 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Slovan Liberec's attack rating (0.48) and Mlada Boleslav's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.71x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.4%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
20%
4.93
31%
3.24
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
1.83
1.18
Mlada Boleslav xG
4.93
20%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.02
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
52%
1.91
Win to Nil
6%
16.09
26%
3.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 19.0 | 11.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.18 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slovan Liberec's recent record stands at 0W 2D 5L from 7 games, a 0.29 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 3L across 7 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mlada Boleslav by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Slovan Liberec heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Slovan Liberec have managed 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mlada Boleslav's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovan Liberec are averaging 0.43 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.57 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slovan Liberec have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Early Season
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 0W 2D 5L in their last 7 games (0.29 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Mlada Boleslav's away record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 0.00 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 4-0 on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovan Liberec
4
Draws
3
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Slovan Liberec 0-0 Mlada Boleslav.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovan Liberec see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Slovan Liberec) and 67% (Mlada Boleslav) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Slovan Liberec and 33% for Mlada Boleslav.
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 100% of games; Mlada Boleslav in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 67% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 33% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Slovan Liberec defy the odds to beat Mlada Boleslav 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Mlada Boleslav 2-1 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 0.65 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.18 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Slovan Liberec beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.48 / defence 1.35 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.71 / defence 1.01, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 20% | Draw 31% | Mlada Boleslav 49%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Slovan Liberec win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 29%, Mlada Boleslav 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mlada Boleslav arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.29. Form was overturned, with Slovan Liberec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.