Slovan Liberec 2-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Hradec Králové travel to Stadion U Nisy to take on Slovan Liberec. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 August 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovan Liberec stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Slovan Liberec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovan Liberec's home record at Stadion U Nisy: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Hradec Králové have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hradec Králové are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Slovan Liberec, 3 for Hradec Králové and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Hradec Králové winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 42% versus Hradec Králové 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 34% | Hradec Králové 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 0.93 xG and Hradec Králové 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.803 / defence 0.814 | Hradec Králové attack 0.862 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.416. Data: 35 Slovan Liberec games / 33 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 33% | Draw 32% | Hradec Králové 36%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Hradec Králové 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Slovan Liberec 40% | Hradec Králové 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion U Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 33% | Draw 32% | Hradec Králové 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Slovan Liberec 0.93 / Hradec Králové 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.803 / def 0.814 | Hradec Králové attack 0.862 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Hradec Králové xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Stadion U Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Slovan Liberec 2 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion U Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 33% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové?
Record (9 meetings): Slovan Liberec 3W | Draws 3 | Hradec Králové 3W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Hradec Králové (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Slovan Liberec's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Slovan Liberec's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
33%
3.07
32%
3.17
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
1.93
0.99
Hradec Králové xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
12%
8.28
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 14.5 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.99 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 38 games, going 14W 10D 14L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.66 PPG from 38 outings (18W 9D 11L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovan Liberec on 1.37 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 6W 6D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 1.22 points per game from 18 outings (6W 4D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.66 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
The Goals Picture
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.42 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 14W 10D 14L in their last 38 games (1.37 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 18W 9D 11L in their last 38 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Hradec Králové away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.33 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Slovan Liberec or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2023, when Slovan Liberec won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovan Liberec's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
3
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 4, Hradec Králové have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Slovan Liberec 2-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovan Liberec see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 33%, Hradec Králové 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Slovan Liberec and 44% for Hradec Králové.
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 39% of games; Hradec Králové in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 56% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 44% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Hradec Králové 2-0 at Stadion U Nisy, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 0.93 xG and Hradec Králové 0.99 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Slovan Liberec beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hradec Králové landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.80 / defence 0.81 against Hradec Králové attack 0.86 / defence 0.82, drawn from 35/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 33% | Draw 32% | Hradec Králové 36%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Slovan Liberec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 34%, Hradec Králové 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.37 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.