Slovan Liberec 1-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovan Liberec at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion u Nisy plays host to Slovan Liberec versus FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 26 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slovan Liberec have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stadion u Nisy — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FK Jablonec (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Slovan Liberec's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of FK Jablonec's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 43% versus FK Jablonec 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 43% | FK Jablonec 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.25 xG and FK Jablonec 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.758 / defence 1.061 | FK Jablonec attack 0.728 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.173. Slovan Liberec's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FK Jablonec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing Slovan Liberec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Slovan Liberec games / 21 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 44% | Draw 29% | FK Jablonec 27%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | FK Jablonec 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Slovan Liberec 20% | FK Jablonec 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 44% | Draw 29% | FK Jablonec 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.25 / FK Jablonec 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.758 / def 1.061 | FK Jablonec attack 0.728 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
0.91
FK Jablonec xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Slovan Liberec 1 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec part of?
Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 44% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Slovan Liberec's attack at 0.76x the league average against FK Jablonec's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.73x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.46
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.16
0.91
FK Jablonec xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
8%
13.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.91 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 21 games, going 7W 4D 10L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 0.95 PPG from 21 outings (4W 8D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 0.95 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 4W 1D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 0.70 points per game from 10 outings (1W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slovan Liberec are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 0.76 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 7W 4D 10L in their last 21 games (1.19 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 4W 8D 9L in their last 21 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or FK Jablonec away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.30 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 0-5 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Slovan Liberec
5
Draws
3
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 2, FK Jablonec have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when FK Jablonec 2-1 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Slovan Liberec) and 50% (FK Jablonec) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Slovan Liberec) and 60% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 60% of games; FK Jablonec in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 50% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 60% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 23, as Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.25 xG and FK Jablonec 0.91 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.76 / defence 1.06 against FK Jablonec attack 0.73 / defence 1.42, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 44% | Draw 29% | FK Jablonec 27%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 43%, FK Jablonec 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.19 PPG, FK Jablonec 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.