Slovan Liberec 2-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 meet at Stadion u Nisy in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Slovan Liberec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 2W 0D 5L at Stadion u Nisy — 0.86 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 1W 2D 4L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.10 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 42% versus Bohemians 1905 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 42% | Bohemians 1905 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.35 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.699 / defence 1.190 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.760 / defence 1.445. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.264. Slovan Liberec's attack strength of 0.699 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bohemians 1905 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.445 — this is suppressing Slovan Liberec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Slovan Liberec games / 12 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 41% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 32%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Bohemians 1905 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Slovan Liberec 14% | Bohemians 1905 71%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 41% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.35 / Bohemians 1905 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.699 / def 1.190 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.760 / def 1.445 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Bohemians 1905 xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Slovan Liberec 2 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 41% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Slovan Liberec's attack at 0.70x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.76x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 13/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
41%
2.42
27%
3.72
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.49
1.14
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
8%
12.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.14 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Slovan Liberec have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 4W 2D 6L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 3W 3D 6L from 12 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.00 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Slovan Liberec have posted 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (2W 0D 4L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Slovan Liberec are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.42 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 in 75%.
Last 12 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.00 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-1 on 4 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Slovan Liberec
5
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 2, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Bohemians 1905 0-0 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 17%, Bohemians 1905 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Slovan Liberec) and 83% (Bohemians 1905). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 67% of games; Bohemians 1905 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 67% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Slovan Liberec's matches and 83% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovan Liberec edge out Bohemians 1905 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Bohemians 1905 2-1 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.35 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.14 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.70 / defence 1.19 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.76 / defence 1.45, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 41% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 32%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 42%, Bohemians 1905 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.17 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.