Slovácko 0-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 35%, yet in-form FK Jablonec provide a compelling counter-argument — this Slovácko vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 7 as Slovácko welcome FK Jablonec to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovácko's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this season.
FK Jablonec — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. FK Jablonec's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Slovácko's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Slovácko, 3 for FK Jablonec and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with FK Jablonec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Slovácko in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 46% versus FK Jablonec 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 44% | FK Jablonec 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 0.94 xG and FK Jablonec 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.780 / defence 0.776 | FK Jablonec attack 1.100 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.040. Slovácko's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Slovácko's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Slovácko games / 36 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 35% | Draw 33% | FK Jablonec 32%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | FK Jablonec 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovácko are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FK Jablonec (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates are neutral: Slovácko 60% | FK Jablonec 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 35% | Draw 33% | FK Jablonec 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Slovácko 0.94 / FK Jablonec 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.780 / def 0.776 | FK Jablonec attack 1.100 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
0.89
FK Jablonec xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Slovácko vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Slovácko 0 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is Slovácko vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs FK Jablonec part of?
Slovácko vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 35% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Slovácko and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and FK Jablonec?
Record (5 meetings): Slovácko 1W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 3W.
What form are Slovácko and FK Jablonec in?
Slovácko (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (0.78) and FK Jablonec's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
35%
2.85
33%
3.07
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Slovácko xG
Total xG
1.83
0.89
FK Jablonec xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
13%
7.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 14.3 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Slovácko and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Slovácko and 0.89 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slovácko come into this having played 41 games, going 14W 11D 16L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.24 PPG from 41 outings (12W 15D 14L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovácko on 1.29 PPG, FK Jablonec on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Slovácko's home form reads 7W 6D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 0.95 points per game from 20 outings (4W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slovácko are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.27 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Early Season
FK Jablonec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 14W 11D 16L in their last 41 games (1.29 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 12W 15D 14L in their last 41 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or FK Jablonec away?
Slovácko's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.35 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Slovácko or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Slovácko's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Slovácko
3
Draws
6
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 1, FK Jablonec have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 50%, FK Jablonec 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Slovácko) and 40% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Slovácko's recent matches and 50% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Slovácko's recent games and 40% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Slovácko's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 7, as Slovácko and FK Jablonec drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 0.94 xG and FK Jablonec 0.89 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slovácko fell 0.9 short of their projected output. FK Jablonec landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.78 / defence 0.78 against FK Jablonec attack 1.10 / defence 0.83, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 35% | Draw 33% | FK Jablonec 32%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 44%, FK Jablonec 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.29 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.