Slavia Praha 4-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sinobo Stadium plays host to Slavia Praha versus Pardubice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 10 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Slavia Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sinobo Stadium, Slavia Praha have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sinobo Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at Sinobo Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Pardubice have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Slavia Praha's favour (2.00 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Pardubice — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 37% versus Pardubice 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 48% | Pardubice 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.31 xG and Pardubice 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.133 / defence 0.732 | Pardubice attack 0.872 / defence 1.892. League average goals — home 1.078 / away 1.135. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.892 — this is suppressing Slavia Praha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Slavia Praha's defence rating of 0.732 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 27 Slavia Praha games / 27 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 73% | Draw 17% | Pardubice 10%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.37 | Draw 5.88 | Pardubice 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 10% | Pardubice 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Sinobo Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 73% | Draw 17% | Pardubice 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 47% | xG Slavia Praha 2.31 / Pardubice 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.133 / def 0.732 | Pardubice attack 0.872 / def 1.892 | league avg home 1.078 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Pardubice xG
47%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Pardubice kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Pardubice kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Sinobo Stadium.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Pardubice?
Slavia Praha 4 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Sinobo Stadium.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Pardubice part of?
Slavia Praha vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 73% chance of winning, Pardubice a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Slavia Praha and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Pardubice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slavia Praha and Pardubice in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Pardubice (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Slavia Praha's attack rating (1.13) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.89), the model arrives at 2.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.87x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 3-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
73%
1.37
17%
5.75
10%
10.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
3.04
0.72
Pardubice xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.75
17%
Draw
10.24
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
10%
10.08
Win to Nil
35%
2.84
1%
103.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.72 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Pardubice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slavia Praha's recent record stands at 20W 4D 3L from 27 games, a 2.37 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pardubice, meanwhile, have gone 4W 9D 14L across 27 games — 0.78 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 1.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pardubice heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Slavia Praha have managed 12W 0D 1L from 13 games — 2.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pardubice's away record stands at 3W 1D 9L across 13 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.15 scored and 2.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice in 67%.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 20W 4D 3L in their last 27 games (2.37 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 4W 9D 14L in their last 27 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Pardubice away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.77 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Pardubice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Pardubice in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 7-0 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 6W 0D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Slavia Praha
1
Draws
0
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 9, Pardubice have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Slavia Praha 2-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Pardubice?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 77% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 23%, Pardubice 85% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Slavia Praha and 85% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 69% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 85% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Slavia Praha's matches and 85% of Pardubice's.
Do Slavia Praha and Pardubice tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Pardubice 4-0 at Sinobo Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 2.31 xG and Pardubice 0.72 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.13 / defence 0.73 against Pardubice attack 0.87 / defence 1.89, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 73% | Draw 17% | Pardubice 10%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 48%, Pardubice 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pardubice's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 0.78. Form held, and they took the win. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.31 average — above their attacking norm. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.