Slavia Praha 4-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 9 as Slavia Praha welcome Hradec Králové to Sinobo Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slavia Praha have gone 6W 1D 0L from 7 outings — a 2.71 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.86 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 3W 3D 2L from 8 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.88 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.21 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.71 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Slavia Praha in-play and half-time data (7 games): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (7 games): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 57% versus Hradec Králové 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 71% | Hradec Králové 14%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.84 xG and Hradec Králové 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.230 / defence 0.933 | Hradec Králové attack 0.637 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.332. Data: 7 Slavia Praha games / 8 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 62% | Draw 22% | Hradec Králové 16%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Hradec Králové 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 57% | Hradec Králové 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Sinobo Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 62% | Draw 22% | Hradec Králové 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 46% | xG Slavia Praha 1.84 / Hradec Králové 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.230 / def 0.933 | Hradec Králové attack 0.637 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Hradec Králové xG
46%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Sinobo Stadium.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Slavia Praha 4 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Sinobo Stadium.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové part of?
Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 62% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 6W-1D-0L in 7 | 2.71 PPG | GF 2.86 / GA 0.86 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Slavia Praha's attack rating (1.23) and Hradec Králové's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Slavia Praha's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.51
16%
6.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.63
0.79
Hradec Králové xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
6.43
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
16%
6.31
Win to Nil
28%
3.54
2%
40.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 10.5 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.79 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slavia Praha come into this having played 7 games, going 6W 1D 0L for 2.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.14 PPG clear of Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 0.86 scored and 1.00 conceded. Slavia Praha's scoring rate against Hradec Králové's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Hradec Králové in 29%.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Hradec Králové in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 6W 1D 0L in their last 7 games (2.71 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Have Slavia Praha or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Hradec Králové have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Slavia Praha's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slavia Praha
3
Draws
4
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Hradec Králové 3-1 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 57%, Hradec Králové 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Slavia Praha) and 14% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 43%; Hradec Králové in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 29% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Slavia Praha's recent games and 14% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Hradec Králové 4-1 at Sinobo Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.84 xG and Hradec Králové 0.79 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.23 / defence 0.93 against Hradec Králové attack 0.64 / defence 1.14, drawn from 7/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 62% | Draw 22% | Hradec Králové 16%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 71%, Hradec Králové 14%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.71 PPG against 1.57. Form held, and they took the win. Slavia Praha scored 4 against a 2.86 average — above their attacking norm. Hradec Králové shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.