Slavia Praha 3-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Baník Ostrava travel to Fortuna Arena to take on Slavia Praha. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 November 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slavia Praha stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slavia Praha have posted 8W 1D 1L at Fortuna Arena — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 3.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena.
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Slavia Praha trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Baník Ostrava trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 43% versus Baník Ostrava 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 61% | Baník Ostrava 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.68 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.839 / defence 0.610 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.890 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.353. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.839 — their λ of 2.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Slavia Praha's defence rating of 0.610 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Slavia Praha games / 44 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 78% | Draw 16% | Baník Ostrava 7%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.28 | Draw 6.25 | Baník Ostrava 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (78%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Slavia Praha 50% | Baník Ostrava 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 78% | Draw 16% | Baník Ostrava 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 49% | xG Slavia Praha 2.68 / Baník Ostrava 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.839 / def 0.610 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.890 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.68
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Baník Ostrava xG
49%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Slavia Praha 3 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 78% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 7% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.84x league average) is weighed against Baník Ostrava's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.68. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Slavia Praha's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.8%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
78%
1.29
16%
6.44
7%
14.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.68
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
3.42
0.73
Baník Ostrava xG
1.29
78%
Home win
6.44
16%
Draw
14.62
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
7%
14.61
Win to Nil
37%
2.68
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 2.68 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.73 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.22 PPG on a 34W 7D 8L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 19W 15D 15L from 49 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baník Ostrava.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.67 PPG from 24 outings (21W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 2.22 PPG overall — Slavia Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 7W 9D 8L from 24 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.53 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.65 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava in 69%.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 34W 7D 8L in their last 49 games (2.22 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 19W 15D 15L in their last 49 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.67 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slavia Praha have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slavia Praha's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Slavia Praha
0
Draws
0
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 10, Baník Ostrava have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-4 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 79% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 33%, Baník Ostrava 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Slavia Praha and 54% for Baník Ostrava. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 62% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Slavia Praha's matches and 54% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Slavia Praha and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Baník Ostrava 3-1 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 2.68 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.73 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.84 / defence 0.61 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.89 / defence 0.88, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 78% | Draw 16% | Baník Ostrava 7%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 78%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 61%, Baník Ostrava 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.47. Form held, and they took the win. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.