Sigma Olomouc 2-0 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sparta Praha make the trip to Andrův stadion to face Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Wednesday 20 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Andrův stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sparta Praha (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Sparta Praha away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sparta Praha are 0.90 PPG clear of Sigma Olomouc in recent Czech Liga fixtures (2.10 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 45% versus Sparta Praha 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 45% | Sparta Praha 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 0.89 xG and Sparta Praha 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.798 / defence 0.973 | Sparta Praha attack 1.130 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.114. Sigma Olomouc's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Sigma Olomouc games / 29 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 26% | Draw 30% | Sparta Praha 43%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Sparta Praha 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 40% | Sparta Praha 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 26% | Draw 30% | Sparta Praha 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Sigma Olomouc 0.89 / Sparta Praha 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.798 / def 0.973 | Sparta Praha attack 1.130 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Sparta Praha xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 20 April 2022 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 0 Sparta Praha.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 26% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Sparta Praha (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (0.80) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.13x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
26%
3.78
30%
3.33
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.12
1.23
Sparta Praha xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
8%
12.87
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 14.7 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.23 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 29 games, going 8W 10D 11L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Sparta Praha sit at 2.28 PPG from 29 outings (20W 6D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.11 PPG clear of Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 5W 7D 2L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Sigma Olomouc are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sparta Praha have taken 1.79 points per game from 14 outings (7W 4D 3L). That's a step down from their 2.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sparta Praha's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.24 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
Sparta Praha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 8W 10D 11L in their last 29 games (1.17 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 20W 6D 3L in their last 29 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.57 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 1-4 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
7
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Sigma Olomouc 0-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 50%, Sparta Praha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sigma Olomouc) and 64% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 36%; Sigma Olomouc have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 50% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 64% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sparta Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Sparta Praha 2-0 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 0.89 xG and Sparta Praha 1.23 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sparta Praha landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.80 / defence 0.97 against Sparta Praha attack 1.13 / defence 0.99, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 26% | Draw 30% | Sparta Praha 43%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sigma Olomouc win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 45%, Sparta Praha 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Sigma Olomouc winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.