Sigma Olomouc 2-0 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha meet at Andrův stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Andrův stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Slavia Praha (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slavia Praha have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Slavia Praha arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Slavia Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 43% versus Slavia Praha 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 43% | Slavia Praha 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.28 xG and Slavia Praha 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.890 / defence 1.123 | Slavia Praha attack 1.107 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.371. Data: 40 Sigma Olomouc games / 40 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 26% | Draw 29% | Slavia Praha 45%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Slavia Praha 2.22. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 50% | Slavia Praha 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 26% | Draw 29% | Slavia Praha 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.28 / Slavia Praha 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.890 / def 1.123 | Slavia Praha attack 1.107 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Slavia Praha xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 0 Slavia Praha.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 26% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Slavia Praha's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.11x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
26%
3.81
29%
3.48
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.98
1.71
Slavia Praha xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
5%
20.98
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.71 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 14W 13D 17L from 44 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha, meanwhile, have gone 30W 7D 7L across 44 games — 2.20 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sigma Olomouc heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 7W 8D 6L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slavia Praha's away record stands at 10W 6D 5L across 21 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slavia Praha's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.57 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 14W 13D 17L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 30W 7D 7L in their last 44 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.38 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 0-5 on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
7
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 1, Slavia Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Slavia Praha 2-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 52%, Slavia Praha 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sigma Olomouc) and 57% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 57% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 57% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Slavia Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Slavia Praha 2-0 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.28 xG and Slavia Praha 1.71 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Slavia Praha landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.89 / defence 1.12 against Slavia Praha attack 1.11 / defence 0.95, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 26% | Draw 29% | Slavia Praha 45%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Sigma Olomouc win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 43%, Slavia Praha 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Sigma Olomouc winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.