Sigma Olomouc 2-3 Plzen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Plzen at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Sigma Olomouc welcome Plzen to Andrův stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Andrův stadion, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Andrův stadion.
Plzen — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Plzen have posted 6W 4D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Plzen's 2.60 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Sigma Olomouc's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 42% versus Plzen 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 42% | Plzen 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 0.82 xG and Plzen 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.789 / defence 1.008 | Plzen attack 1.060 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.343. Sigma Olomouc's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Plzen's defence strength of 0.749 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Sigma Olomouc games / 36 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 19% | Draw 31% | Plzen 49%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 5.26 | Draw 3.23 | Plzen 2.04. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 40% | Plzen 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 19% | Draw 31% | Plzen 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Sigma Olomouc 0.82 / Plzen 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.789 / def 1.008 | Plzen attack 1.060 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Plzen (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Plzen xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 3 Plzen.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 19% chance of winning, Plzen a 49% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Plzen (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 0.79x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
19%
5.18
31%
3.18
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.26
1.44
Plzen xG
5.18
19%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
5%
21.77
22%
4.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 15.0 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.44 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Sigma Olomouc have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 13W 12D 16L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plzen's form line: 31W 8D 2L from 41 games, 2.46 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 1.22 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sigma Olomouc.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1.45 PPG from 20 outings (7W 8D 5L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 12W 6D 2L from 20 away games — 2.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.80 scored and 0.61 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
Plzen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 13W 12D 16L in their last 41 games (1.24 PPG), while Plzen have gone 31W 8D 2L in their last 41 (2.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.45 PPG; Plzen away: 2.10 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Plzen in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sigma Olomouc
1
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, Plzen have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Plzen see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 50%, Plzen 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Sigma Olomouc and 30% for Plzen.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Plzen in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 40% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 30% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Plzen tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Plzen in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Sigma Olomouc 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Sigma Olomouc 2-3 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 0.82 xG and Plzen 1.44 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Plzen outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.79 / defence 1.01 against Plzen attack 1.06 / defence 0.75, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 19% | Draw 31% | Plzen 49%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 42%, Plzen 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.