Sigma Olomouc 4-0 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sigma Olomouc (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sigma Olomouc face Karviná.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Karviná make the trip to Andruv stadion to face Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Final. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Andruv stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Karviná have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Karviná away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Sigma Olomouc's favour (1.60 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Sigma Olomouc, who have won 5 of the last 9 meetings against Karviná — a 2D 2W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sigma Olomouc and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Karviná — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sigma Olomouc 57% and Karviná 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 60% | Karviná 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.56 xG and Karviná 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.029 / defence 1.054 | Karviná attack 1.026 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.201. Data: 60 Sigma Olomouc games / 60 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 43% | Draw 27% | Karviná 31%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Karviná 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sigma Olomouc are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sigma Olomouc 50% | Karviná 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Final | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 43% | Draw 27% | Karviná 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.56 / Karviná 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.029 / def 1.054 | Karviná attack 1.026 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Karviná xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 23 May 2026 at Andruv stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Sigma Olomouc 4 - 0 Karviná.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná is a Final fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 43% chance of winning, Karviná a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Karviná?
Record (9 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 5W | Draws 2 | Karviná 2W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Karviná in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Karviná (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.03x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (1.03x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
43%
2.35
27%
3.76
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.86
1.30
Karviná xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
6%
15.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.30 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 65 games, going 24W 15D 26L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 1.28 PPG from 65 outings (24W 11D 30L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.28 for Karviná. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 14W 6D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 1.38 points per game from 32 outings (13W 5D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.35 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná in 63%.
Last 65 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
Karviná
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Karviná in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 24W 15D 26L in their last 65 games (1.34 PPG), while Karviná have gone 24W 11D 30L in their last 65 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Karviná away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.50 PPG; Karviná away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sigma Olomouc have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 4-0 on 23 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
2
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Karviná?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 6, Karviná have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 4-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Karviná?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 56%, Karviná 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Sigma Olomouc and 75% for Karviná. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Karviná?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 69% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 75% of Karviná's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Karviná tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Karviná in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sigma Olomouc run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Karviná 4-0 at Andruv stadion, Final, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.56 xG and Karviná 1.30 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Karviná landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.03 / defence 1.05 against Karviná attack 1.03 / defence 1.10, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 43% | Draw 27% | Karviná 31%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 60%, Karviná 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Karviná's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.34 PPG, Karviná 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.